Yanolja Research Announces Forecast Results
(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Shin Seon-mi – A forecast has emerged that the number of foreign tourists visiting Korea next year will exceed 20 million, marking a record high.
At the same time, it is predicted that the number of Koreans traveling abroad will also increase to around 30 million next year.
On the 29th, Yanolja Research held a press conference titled ‘2026 Inbound and Outbound Demand Forecast and Tourism Strategy’ at the MDM Center in Daechi-dong, Gangnam-gu, to announce these results from a deep learning model analysis.
Yanolja Research predicted the number of inbound foreign tourists next year to be 20.36 million, an 8.7% increase compared to this year.
By country, inbound tourists consist mainly of 6.15 million from China, followed by 3.84 million from Japan and 1.66 million from the United States.
Hong Seok-won, a senior researcher at Yanolja Research, added, “The increasing tensions between China and Japan present an opportunity for an influx of Chinese tourists into Korea, and if the ‘balloon effect’ materializes, the number of Chinese tourists could potentially increase to 7 million.”
Yanolja Research also forecasts that the demand for overseas travel by South Korean citizens will increase by 2.6% next year, reaching 30.23 million.
Despite the record high for inbound (foreigners’ travel to Korea), outbound (Korean citizens’ travel abroad) demand also increases, maintaining the gap between inbound and outbound tourists at around 10 million.
Suh Dae-cheol, a senior researcher at Yanolja Research, said about next year’s travel market, “It will be a year of qualitative restructuring,” noting that “the standard of travel consumption is shifting from ‘price’ to ‘safety and cost-effectiveness.'”
Regarding overseas destinations for next year, he stated, “Japan is expected to retain the top position (9.65 million people) aided by the weak yen and increased direct flights to local areas.”
He continued, “While China is expected to see a high growth rate of 24.2% due to the visa waiver effect, demand for Thailand is predicted to decrease due to safety concerns and exchange rate burdens.”
Jang Su-cheong, a director at Yanolja Research, identified the fundamental cause of the tourism balance deficit as a ‘value gap’ in experiential value, suggesting solutions such as ▲ local storytelling ▲ premium thematic travel ▲ upcycling of unused spaces.
Professor Choi Gyu-wan from Kyunghee University proposed attracting international airlines to local hub airports and connecting them with nearby tourist areas through a ‘Hub & Spoke’ strategy to alleviate the concentration of foreign tourists in the Seoul metropolitan area.
Professor Choi stated, “Creating a structure where foreigners can directly travel to local areas without going through Seoul is the most certain tourism solution to prevent local extinction.”