The “de facto military alliance” treaty between North Korea and Russia is set to come into effect soon, as it includes provisions for military support between the two nations. This has raised the possibility that North Korean troops might officially participate in Russia’s wars as a justification. Recently, North Korea launched a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) without an engine test, prompting assessments that the “dangerous deal” between the two sides might have already begun.
On November 11, according to sources like TASS news agency, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty with North Korea on November 9. Previously, the Russian State Duma and Federation Council unanimously passed the ratification proposal submitted by President Putin. Once North Korea completes the ratification and signs the deal, and the two nations exchange the ratification documents, the treaty will take effect indefinitely.
North Korea generally goes through ratification procedures via the Supreme People’s Assembly, their equivalent to a national parliament. However, for significant treaties, the chairman of the State Affairs Commission, Kim Jong-un, can directly ratify or annul them. This means that if Kim Jong-un decides, the necessary procedures could be expedited to exchange ratification documents with Russia.
The treaty, signed in June in Pyongyang, reinstates the “automatic military intervention” clause from the Soviet-era alliance treaty. It commits both parties to provide military assistance using all available means if one is invaded and enters a state of war.
While the international community criticizes the potential dispatch of North Korean troops as an illegal act of aggression, North Korea and Russia might justify the deployment with this treaty. Last month on the 25th, when satellite images suggesting North Korean troop deployments were released, President Putin did not deny them outright but referred to the treaty’s Article 4, arguing there would be no legal issues even if the allegations of troop deployment are true, citing the automatic military intervention clause.
Beyond troop deployments, the treaty may lead to various security concerns on the Korean Peninsula. This could include Russia’s nuclear power capabilities being transferred to North Korea, or joint military exercises between North Korea and Russia. President Putin has kept the option open for North Korea-Russia joint training, stating, “Why not?”
Concerns are also rising that Russia’s military technology has already been transferred to North Korea. According to Yoo Yong-won, a member of the National Assembly’s National Defense Committee, the Defense Intelligence Agency reports that North Korea launched the new ICBM model, “Hwasong-19,” without an engine test. Earlier in March, North Korea revealed a multi-stage engine ground test for a new intermediate-range hypersonic missile, but there have been no further identified solid-fuel engine tests since, according to military assessments.
On October 31, North Korea launched a solid-fuel ICBM, “Hwasong-19,” which they praised as the “final version.” This was the first ICBM launch of the year. The Defense Intelligence Agency evaluated it as a new ICBM separate from the “Hwasong-18,” considering factors like increased missile body length, diameter, and maximum altitude. Unlike the eight-axle transporter erector launcher (TEL) used for Hwasong-18, an 11-axle TEL was used.
The fact that North Korea developed and launched a new missile without an engine test supports the possibility of Russian technological assistance. Under the North Korea-Russia treaty’s “space technology cooperation” clause, Russia might be providing technology that could be repurposed for ballistic missile improvements. While this could be masked as peaceful purposes like satellite development, the launch technologies for satellites and ICBMs are shared.