Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, spoke with Park Chan-dae, the party’s floor leader, and Park Jeong, the chair of the National Assembly’s Special Committee on Budget and Accounts, at a parliamentary session on the afternoon of the 14th.
The first trial verdict on charges of violating the Public Official Election Act, which constitutes the initial obstacle in Lee’s legal challenges, is just a day away. While the Democratic Party remains optimistic about the trial outcome, they are closely monitoring its potential impact on the political landscape.
The Seoul Central District Court’s Criminal Agreement Division 34 (Chief Judge Han Sung-jin) is scheduled to deliver a verdict on Lee’s charges at 2:30 PM on the 15th. It marks the first judgment among the four ongoing trials related to Lee, following his indictment without detention in September 2022, over two years ago.
The prosecution has requested a maximum sentence of two years in prison for violating the Public Official Election Act. If a fine of over 1 million won is imposed and this verdict is upheld, Lee would lose his parliamentary seat and be barred from running for office for five years. This could be detrimental to Lee, who is already positioning himself for the next presidential election.
If ethical flaws emerge in the opposition leadership, which is currently attacking the presidential office over various allegations, it could negatively influence their offensive against the ruling party. Increased perception of difficulty in finding suitable alternatives if President Yoon retreats could reduce the momentum for calls for impeachment or resignation.
The issue of election costs is also highlighted. If Lee receives a sentence of over 1 million won, the Democratic Party would have to return the 43.4 billion won in election expenses refunded by the National Election Commission after the last presidential election. People Power Party’s representative Han Dong-hoon remarked that even if 43.4 billion won is returned, the party would still have assets close to 50 billion won, suggesting that the party wouldn’t disintegrate even if Lee’s election is invalidated.
If the court finds Lee guilty but imposes a fine of less than 1 million won, the situation could change. Although Lee’s illegal actions would be acknowledged, he would retain his parliamentary seat and eligibility to run for office. A Democratic Party official stated that given the strong support for Lee from party members, a minor sentence would unlikely affect his influence or presidential prospects.
There are concerns that any form of guilty verdict could have repercussions. Former National Assembly Secretary-General Yoo In-tae mentioned in a CBS radio interview that a guilty verdict, even if mild, would lead to a ripple effect, suggesting that the momentum similar to the party’s “Geographical Daughters’ Nomination” event might be slightly dampened.
If Lee is acquitted, the opposition’s attacks on the ruling party are expected to gain traction. Having overcome the initial legal challenge, the Democratic Party might argue that the prosecution of Lee was political oppression by the current administration, counterattacking accordingly. Many within the Democratic Party are optimistic, believing there’s a high chance of an acquittal or a lower sentence.
The political landscape could remain volatile even after the ruling on the 15th, due to the upcoming verdict on the 25th regarding Lee’s alleged perjury inducement. In December 2018, during a trial concerning Lee’s election law violation, he allegedly asked a former secretary of the previous mayor of Seongnam to testify falsely regarding a prosecutor impersonation case. The prosecution has sought a three-year prison sentence related to this perjury inducement, which would disqualify Lee from the next presidential race if confirmed.
On this day, Lee limited his public schedule and focused on preparing for his trial with close aides. Aside from attending the parliamentary session addressing the “Kim Geon-hee Special Prosecutor Act,” Lee refrained from scheduling additional appointments or making direct comments about the trial.