Prominent Lee Jae-myung’s Solo Leadership
Conservative Candidates Struggling
“No Preferred Candidate” a Factor at 21%. In a Korea Times New Year poll on the ‘suitability of the next president,’ Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party stood out with a dominant lead. Lee recorded a support rate of 38%, securing a commanding first place. The runner-up, former People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon, received only 7%. National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik, who was mentioned as a presidential candidate for the first time after gaining prominence during the martial law incident, performed well at 6%.
Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo and Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon each garnered 5%, while People Power Party lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo and former Minister of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport Won Hee-ryong were reported at 3%. Gyeonggi Province Governor Kim Dong-yeon and Innovation Party lawmaker Lee Jun-seok were at 2%. Meanwhile, 21% said they had no preferred candidate.
The Korea Times and Korea Research surveyed 1,000 eligible voters nationwide on December 22-23, asking who they think is most suitable as the next president (margin of error: ±3.1% points at a 95% confidence level). 38% of respondents chose Lee. This figure is higher than the combined support rate (33%) of the remaining eight candidates. Among female respondents, 42% supported Lee, while 35% of male respondents did.
Lee led comfortably over other candidates across all age groups and regions. Even among those aged 70 and older, where conservative support is strong, Lee scored 25%, widening the gap with the second-place former leader Han (12%). In the age groups 40-49 (55%) and 50-59 (46%), Lee’s support was particularly high. Lee received the most support in the Gwangju and Jeolla regions (61%) and led in Daegu and North Gyeongsang (TK), a conservative stronghold, with 27%, outpacing former leader Han (15%) and Mayor Hong (9%).
This is in contrast to a year ago when in the Korea Times and Korea Research’s New Year survey, Lee and former leader Han were neck and neck within the margin of error (Lee at 23%, Han at 21%). Compared to that time, Lee’s support rose by 15 percentage points, while Han’s declined by 14 points, highlighting the widening gap between them.
However, despite Lee’s overwhelming lead, questions remain about his potential to expand his support base. His support rate (38%) is lower than the Democratic Party’s support rate (43%) in the same survey, with only 35% of centrists and 7% of independent voters supporting him. The combination of “no preferred candidate” (21%), “support other figures” (4%), and “unknown/no response” (3%) adds up to 28%, which could be a variable.
In the aftermath of President Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment, conservative candidates generally struggled. Former leader Han’s support rate (7%) was a third of what it was in the same survey a year ago (21%). Aside from former leader Han, no candidate exceeded 10% support in the TK region. The support rate for the People Power Party stood at 23%.
Speaker Woo’s notable performance, recording third place by building prominence during the impeachment situation, stood out. His support among centrists was 10%, making him the only candidate besides Lee to reach double-digit support.
For detailed information, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.