WSJ, citing US and Libyan officials, reports “Libya may be used as a military base to replace Syria.”
According to reports, Russia is moving air defense systems and major military weapons from Syria to Libya as it faces the potential loss of military bases in Syria following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Analysts suggest this could be an effort to shift Russia’s military foothold in the Middle East from Syria to Libya as the Assad regime, a long-time ally, falls apart. However, Western officials predict Libya may not allow an expansion of Russia’s military presence within its borders due to Western pressure.
On December 18, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) cited American and Libyan officials in reporting that “Russia is relocating advanced air defense systems and other major weapons from its air and naval bases in Syria to Libya.” According to the report, Russian military cargo planes have transported air defense equipment, including radars for the S-400 and S-300 interception systems, to bases in eastern Libya from Syria.
Russia intervened in the Syrian civil war in 2015, supporting President Assad, who has since fled to Russia. In exchange, Russia established an airbase in Khmeimim and a naval base in Tartus, Syria’s two main military installations, which served as hubs for supplying troops, mercenaries, and weapons, laying the groundwork for Russian military influence in the Middle East and Africa. The Tartus naval base especially played a significant role as Russia’s only Mediterranean logistics and maintenance facility.
However, with Russian rebels capturing Damascus, the Syrian capital, maintaining Russian military bases in Syria has become precarious. Following the Syrian crisis, the Russian government attempted discussions with the rebel group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which led the ousting of President Assad, but seemingly with no meaningful results.
The WSJ assessed that “as Russia faces the risk of losing its military bases in Syria with Assad’s regime collapse, it is attempting to use Libya, a long-time (ally) partner, to maintain its military influence in the Middle East and Africa.” The US and NATO member countries also maintain military bases and vessels in Libya.
Like Syria, Libya has suffered from a long civil war, leaving it divided into eastern and western factions in a state of anarchy. Eastern Libya is supported by Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), while the internationally recognized Government of National Unity (GNU) governs the west. Russia has established close ties with the LNA, using mercenaries, such as those from the Wagner Group, to extend its presence in Libya, utilizing the LNA’s military facilities, especially airbases, as gateways to other African countries. Furthermore, Russia has helped shield the LNA from Turkey-supported groups based in Western Libya.
The WSJ highlighted that Haftar would welcome Russia’s weapons relocation since he requested air defense systems for years to bolster his influence post-Muammar Gaddafi’s ousting during the 2011 ‘Arab Spring’. However, he may face Western pressure to prevent this. Western officials noted that “although Russia’s air defense systems, including the S-400, have been directed to Libya, it is unclear whether they will remain there or return to Russia,” adding that even if Russia establishes major military bases in Libya, it will be difficult to fully compensate for its losses in Syria.