Justin Trudeau, the Canadian Prime Minister, was pictured in deep thought last April at Ottawa’s parliament. He faces declining support due to pressures from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats, economic difficulties, and anti-immigrant sentiments. Reports suggest that Trudeau could step down as early as the 6th (local time) from his position as the leader of the Liberal Party. In Canada’s parliamentary system, the ruling party leader generally serves as the prime minister.
With Canada set to hold a general election in October this year, there is talk of an early election due to the Liberal Party trailing significantly behind the opposition Conservative Party in key polls. This has fueled analysis that a political realignment is inevitable, with possible ensuing chaos over who would lead this change.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who took office in July, is also struggling with low approval ratings. Similarly, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz faced a vote of no-confidence last December, with prospects of re-election in the upcoming general election on February 23 appearing dim. All three countries anticipate significant challenges in future governance.
The Globe and Mail cited three sources stating that Trudeau may resign as Liberal leader as soon as the 6th or by the party convention on the 8th at the latest. It is unclear whether he will resign from both the party leadership and prime ministership simultaneously, or if he will stay on as prime minister until a new party leader is elected. Reuters also reported that while Trudeau has not made a final decision, he may step down on the 6th.
Trudeau, who came to power in November 2015 at age 44, was known for his oratory skills and charismatic presence, earning titles like “leader of the world’s young politicians” and “Canada’s Obama.” However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, rising unemployment and deteriorating healthcare services, along with growing dissatisfaction among voters over his pro-immigration policies, have led to declining approval ratings. Despite his promise to boost the economy by accepting 500,000 new immigrants annually, conservative opposition claims that immigrants are only draining resources.
Since Trudeau’s first year in power in 2015, the number of immigrants in Canada increased by about 260,000 from the previous year, surging to approximately 1.29 million in 2023, nearly five times that amount. The influx has strained public healthcare and driven up housing prices in major cities. The unemployment rate rose from 5.7% in January to 6.8% in November last year as job seekers increased.
According to a local polling agency, Nanos, Trudeau’s approval fell from 31.1% in September 2021 to 17.4% last December. In the same period, the Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s approval rose from 27.5% to 40.0%. Currently, Liberal support stands at 21%, less than half of the Conservative’s 47%.
Trump’s election victory further weakened Trudeau’s position. On November 25, Trump announced a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods. Despite visiting Trump’s residence at Mar-a-Lago in Florida four days later, Trudeau failed to negotiate lower tariffs. In December, Trump derisively called him “America’s 51st governor.” Former Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, once a close ally, abruptly resigned six days after criticizing Trudeau’s subservience to Trump. This fueled calls for Trudeau’s resignation within the Liberal Party.
Potential candidates for the new Liberal leader include Mark Carney, the first non-British head of the Bank of England, ex-Deputy PM Freeland, and Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly. However, given the likelihood of the Conservatives becoming the leading party, it may be difficult for a new Liberal leader to exert influence.
Elsewhere, Trump’s close associate, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, suggests interference by openly supporting far-right parties, the Reform UK and Germany’s AfD, in Britain and Germany, respectively, leading to controversy. Musk blames Starmer for covering up child exploitation cases during his tenure as attorney general and criticizes Scholz’s leadership, arguing for both leaders’ resignations.
Calls for an early election are emerging in the UK amid Labour’s low approval ratings. Similarly, in Germany, a post-election coalition is uncertain, increasing the possibility of prolonged political uncertainty.