The recent powerful earthquake in central Myanmar could potentially result in more than 100,000 casualties, according to experts who cited “accumulated tectonic strain,” “vulnerable urban infrastructure,” and “collapsed response systems” as reasons for the severe impact.
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has evaluated that the earthquake’s epicenter was just 10 km below the surface, allowing its force to transmit virtually unmitigated to the ground, thus exacerbating the damage. The quake, which shook Myanmar’s central region, had a magnitude estimated between 7.7 to 7.9.
Roger Musson, a seismologist from the British Geological Survey, explained in an interview with the South China Morning Post that a shallow quake’s seismic waves reach the surface with greater impact, stressing structures more intensely.
Moreover, the area of the quake had been a “seismic gap” for a long time, meaning it had not experienced significant seismic activity for a period. Professor Toda Shinji from Tohoku University noted that the Sagaing fault had accumulated strain since the last major earthquake in 1839, and its release resulted in the current catastrophe.
Myanmar’s infrastructure also contributed to the high toll. Despite a rapid increase in high-rise buildings due to economic development, adherence to seismic design codes has been reportedly lacking. Consequently, many structures were unable to withstand the earthquake’s force.
The earthquake also highlighted Myanmar’s logistical vulnerabilities. After the 2021 coup, the country has been embroiled in internal conflict, effectively collapsing emergency and administrative functions. Disruptions in electricity and communications further impeded rescue operations, with reports of rescue personnel resorting to digging out survivors by hand.
The lack of media access and the military government’s tight control over information have further delayed response and damage assessment efforts. The USGS projects a 36% probability that the death toll could exceed 100,000, with significant broader economic damages that might surpass Myanmar’s GDP.