\nAs North Korea’s nuclear threats against the South become more blatant, South Korea and the United States have agreed to begin work on incorporating potential North Korean nuclear use into their operational plans.
South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin held the 56th Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) at the U.S. Department of Defense near Washington D.C. on the 30th (local time), where they discussed this issue.
In a joint statement, both ministers stated, “Future joint exercises will include realistic scenarios, including responses to North Korean nuclear use.”
Although not explicitly mentioned, this section is interpreted as an intention to reflect scenarios of North Korean nuclear use in their operational plans.
Until now, the basic stance has been to respond based on the U.S. extended deterrence, even in the face of nuclear threats.
However, a government official stated that the situation has changed as North Korea has started to blatantly threaten to use nuclear weapons for preemptive strikes.
As the joint statement by South Korea and the United States in the SCM did not specify a timeline and instead used the term “in the future,” it is anticipated that reflecting North Korean nuclear use scenarios into the operational plan will proceed in the long term.
In the first step, during the 4th Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) meeting in December, a preliminary draft of a nuclear-conventional integrated concept will be prepared, followed by a Command Post Exercise (CNI) to be conducted during the “Ulji Freedom Shield” joint exercise around August next year, as explained by a Ministry of Defense official.
At the 2021 SCM, South Korea and the United States agreed in a joint statement to “update operational plans” due to North Korea’s advancement of nuclear and missile capabilities. Considering North Korea’s increased provocation capabilities now, greater changes to the operational plan are expected than were anticipated three years ago.