At the last plenary session of the 21st National Assembly, the Marine Corps’ Chae Sang-byeong Special Prosecutor Bill was rejected, with analysis attributing the failure to the absence of additional defections within the ruling party and instead witnessing defections from the opposition and non-aligned members.
On the 28th, the National Assembly held a plenary session and rejected the reintroduction of the Chae Sang-byeong Special Prosecutor Bill. To pass a bill that has been returned to the National Assembly with the President’s demand for reconsideration, a majority of attending members and approval by over two-thirds of the attending members are required. In this case, to pass the Chae Sang-byeong Special Prosecutor Bill, it required more than 196 votes from the 294 attending members. However, the anonymous vote results only reached 179 in favor, 17 votes short. There were 111 opposing votes and 4 invalid votes.
The ruling party’s unity that prevented additional defections was highlighted as a background factor. Of the lawmakers who participated in the vote, there were 179 from the opposition and 115 from the ruling party. Despite expectations that there would be 110 opposing votes after excluding 5 ruling party members who previously declared support for the bill, the actual count was 111 opposing votes, with an additional 4 invalid votes.
While it cannot be completely ruled out that one of the ruling party’s 5 members who expressed support may have turned against the bill, the credible analysis suggests defections occurred within the opposition. In the vote, if 5 members from the ruling party were expected to vote for the bill but did not, it would imply defections from the opposition. One opposition lawmaker who participated in the vote said, “After talking to some colleagues, I felt that there would be significant defections from the ruling party… Others had similar conversations.”
Internal defections within the opposition were attributed to the aftermath of the Democratic Party’s candidate selection process for the next general election. Independent lawmaker Lee Soo-jin, who did not attend the plenary session, had challenged for re-election in the 22nd parliamentary election but was excluded from the party’s nomination process, prompting her to leave the party in protest.
The ruling party made efforts to monitor defections until the last moment of the vote. Just before the vote, they held an emergency caucus that adopted rejection as their position. The Majority Floor Leader Choo Kyung-ho stated, “The special prosecutor law is an evil law created by the Democratic Party for political strife and division,” alleging that it is a move to divert attention from the President’s judicial risks and impeachment proceedings against Governor Lee Jae-myung. Vice Chairman Hwang Woo-yea also urged lawmakers, “As members of the ruling party, you should gather your intentions to continue the momentum of reform… We hope you will act with a single-minded determination.”
On the other hand, lawmaker Kim Woong confirmed his positive vote after the plenary session by posting on social media, saying, “Discipline me. Use the devotion and earnestness we showed in the past few days to protect the lives of the young, not to protect the power-hungry.”
Amid and after the voting, there was tension between the ruling and opposition parties in the National Assembly chamber. Lawmakers from both sides engaged in opposing debates, leading to shouting and protests from each side. Around 30 members of the Marine Corps Reserve Association appealed to ruling party lawmakers for their support and criticized them as they left the chamber after the bill’s rejection, calling them “culprits who resist special prosecution” and expressing their disdain for their “conscienceless” actions.
The situation regarding the Special Prosecutor Bill related to Chae Sang-byeong is expected to continue as the opposition parties announced plans to reintroduce the bill in the 22nd National Assembly. If the bill is reintroduced in the 22nd National Assembly, the ruling party faces a more challenging political landscape compared to the 21st National Assembly. With an increase to 192 opposition seats, only 8 defections from the ruling party can potentially neutralize the President’s veto power. In cases where the ruling party is cornered, similar to the Itaewon Special Law, there is a possibility of reaching an agreement through negotiations regarding bills rejected by the President’s veto.
The progression of the investigation into the Chae Sang-byeong case by the High-Ranking Officials’ Crimes Investigation Unit is also crucial. If the investigation into the Chae Sang-byeong case advances or if the investigation targets the presidential office and intensifies, public sentiment demanding a special prosecutor could be further influenced.