In a recent poll conducted by News1 in collaboration with the polling agency Gallup Korea, it was found that Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate from the Democratic Party, would maintain over 50% support and win in a three-way race against a unified candidate from Kim Moon-soo and Han Duck-soo and the Reform Party candidate Lee Jun-seok. The survey, conducted on May 4th and 5th with a sample size of 1,007 adults nationwide, revealed that Lee Jae-myung secured 51% of the support, putting him in the lead.
In scenarios where Kim Moon-soo was the unified candidate, he received 33% support, while Lee Jun-seok garnered 8%. Those with no preferred candidate made up 7%, and 1% declined to respond. In a scenario where Han Duck-soo was the unified candidate, Lee Jae-myung maintained a lead with 50% support, while Han received 36% and Lee Jun-seok 8%. The pool with no preferred candidate stood at 6%.
The results indicate that even if Kim Moon-soo or Han Duck-soo were chosen as unified candidates, Lee Jae-myung held a consistent majority. Han Duck-soo showed marginally higher synergy in unification, leading by 3 percentage points over Kim Moon-soo, though the difference was minimal due to overlapping support bases among Kim and Han.
In particular, Kim Moon-soo received 84% support from People Power Party supporters in a three-way race, compared to 7% for Lee Jun-seok and 4% for Lee Jae-myung. When unified under Han Duck-soo, 89% of People Power Party supporters favored him, compared to 5% for Lee Jun-seok and 3% for Lee Jae-myung. The slight edge Han Duck-soo had in consolidating the People Power base suggested limited expansion potential from unification.
Politically, among conservative voters, Kim Moon-soo held 65% support, while Lee Jae-myung had 19%, and Lee Jun-seok 11%. With Han Duck-soo as the unified candidate, support from conservative voters was 66% for Han, 20% for Lee Jae-myung, and 9% for Lee Jun-seok, showing nearly identical political leanings for supporters of Kim and Han.
The survey was conducted via phone interviews using randomly generated mobile numbers, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level and a response rate of 15.8%. For more details, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.