Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung, and Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo (from left) are mentioned as potential candidates for the next presidential election. According to a survey conducted by Gallup Korea on behalf of the JoongAng Ilbo during the Lunar New Year holiday, if an early election were held and Mayor Oh and Mayor Hong ran as candidates for the People Power Party, they would be in a close race against Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party. The survey was conducted via telephone interviews with 1,031 adults nationwide aged 18 and above on January 23-24.
In hypothetical matchups between Lee and seven ruling coalition politicians, Lee was found to be ahead of all potential candidates. However, the competitiveness varied significantly depending on who the candidate from the ruling party was. If Lee faced Mayor Oh, the survey showed 46% for Lee and 43% for Oh, and if Lee faced Mayor Hong, it showed 45% for Lee and 42% for Hong, all within the margin of error (±3.1 percentage points), a mere 3 percentage points difference.
Regionally, Mayors Oh and Hong were ahead in Seoul, Gangwon, Daejeon/Sejong/Chungcheong, Daegu/Gyeongbuk (TK), and Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam (PK), while Lee was ahead in Incheon/Gyeonggi, Gwangju/Jeolla, and Jeju, showing a mixed battle. By age group, Lee led among those in their 40s and 50s, while Mayors Oh and Hong led among those in their 60s and 70s. Traditional support bases for conservatives and progressives favored their respective candidates, but results were mixed among 18-29-year-olds and those in their 30s, who tend to lean undecided. Mayors Oh and Hong led among those in their 30s, but among those aged 18-29, the race between Lee (43%) and Oh (38%) was tight, while Hong (47%) was ahead of Lee (35%).
The close results are interesting, considering the current public sentiment is more supportive of “regime change” (51%) than “regime maintenance” (42%). Public opinion about President Yoon Suk-yeol has been negative since the December 3 martial law incident. In this survey, 60% supported the impeachment of President Yoon, compared to 35% against it. Despite a desire to change the current government underlying the public sentiment, Lee has not been able to break away significantly. Park Dong-won, the head of Polycom, mentioned that the impeachment sentiment is not directly translating into a demand for the regime’s judgment, and there is also a notable negative sentiment toward Lee Jae-myung.
The expected close competition in head-to-head matchups is also attributed to the solid consolidation in each camp. When asked about party support, the People Power Party and the Democratic Party both had similar support at 41% and 40%, respectively, with undecided or unknown responses limited to 12%. The undecided group was equally small in hypothetical matchups, at 12% for a Lee versus Oh contest and 13% for Lee versus Hong. Even though a decision on the impeachment of President Yoon has not been reached, a significant number of voters are perceiving the current situation as heading toward a presidential election, resulting in consolidation within the respective camps.
Huh Jin-jae, a senior survey manager at Gallup Korea, noted that “the support ratings for the Democratic Party and the People Power Party are unusually high” and explained that “usually, the indecisive group accounts for about 25%, but the fact that it slightly exceeds 10% this time indicates that both factions are quickly consolidating.” He further added that “the party support ratings were around 30% just before the March 9, 2022 presidential election, which suggests a more consolidated situation now.”
Despite a rapid rise in approval ratings, Minister of Employment and Labor Kim Moon-so, a prominent figure in the conservative camp, was found to lag behind in terms of competitiveness in the main race. In a hypothetical matchup between Lee and Minister Kim, Lee led 47% to 38%, a 9-point difference outside the margin of error. In contrast, the differences between Lee (44%) and Rep. Ahn Cheol-soo (37%) of the People Power Party and between Lee (42%) and former People Power Party Representative Yoo Seung-min (35%) were 7 percentage points each.
In a hypothetical match between Lee (46%) and former People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon (34%), there was a 12-point difference. Between Lee (47%) and Rep. Lee Jun-seok of the Reform Party (26%), the gap widened to 21 points. Although Rep. Lee previously led the People Power Party, he left the party before the general election last April and has continued to challenge the ruling party, contributing to these results. During hypothetical matchups, only 46% of People Power Party supporters chose Rep. Lee, while 47% said there was “no candidate.”
When asked about preferences for overall presidential candidates, rather than in head-to-head matchups, Lee Jae-myung led with 36%, followed by Minister Kim Moon-soo (16%), Mayor Hong Joon-pyo (10%), former leader Han Dong-hoon (8%), Mayor Oh Se-hoon (7%), Governor Kim Dong-yeon of Gyeonggi (4%), Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik (2%), and Rep. Lee Jun-seok (1%).
Experts believe that the current situation could fluctuate significantly. Professor Yoo Sung-jin from Ewha Womans University (Political Science) stated, “It’s still too early to clearly analyze the election phase,” suggesting that “voters will start seriously considering their choices once the impeachment results and the presidential election phases become more defined.” Senior Survey Manager Huh Jin-jae pointed out that while Lee Jae-myung’s judicial risks could be a negative factor for the Democratic Party, in the ruling coalition, the potential of Rep. Lee Jun-seok to run independently and create a three-way race is a major variable.
In this survey, the preferences for the next president were investigated by considering the top two candidates from both the ruling and opposition parties, as recorded in Gallup Korea’s regular survey (third week of January), and asking participants to choose from a list in a multiple-choice format.
The survey was conducted by Gallup Korea, commissioned by the JoongAng Ilbo, through a telephone interview method using virtual mobile numbers, with a sample size of 1,031 people nationwide aged 18 and above, on January 23-24, 2025. The response rate was 13.3% (1,031 out of 7,761 people), and the results were weighted by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population statistics from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety as of December 2024. The sampling error is within a maximum of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, please refer to the website of the Central Election Survey Review Commission (www.nesdc.go.kr).