Yanolja Research forecasts that approximately 18.73 million foreign tourists will visit Korea next year, using its self-developed AI model for predicting inbound tourism demand. This figure represents a 7% increase compared to 2019, which had the highest number of visitors. However, they caution that negative perceptions related to Korean travel could persist if political instability continues, potentially reducing inbound demand.
At a seminar in Seoul, Yanolja Research presented insights into next year’s tourism industry using an AI prediction model to estimate inbound tourist numbers. The model integrates and analyzes data from the past two years, including travel big data, economic indicators, global travel mobility, and social trends, to forecast a 7% growth from 2019 levels.
The model employs LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) deep learning technology to address seasonal and long-term trends. When comparing actual visitor numbers between November last year and October this year with AI model predictions, the error rate was approximately 1.2%, indicating high reliability.
Hong Seok-won, a senior researcher, commented on the potential for growth in inbound tourist demand post-pandemic, acknowledging the unpredictability of political factors that might cause numbers to fall below expectations. He also noted that positive factors could lead to higher growth than predicted.
In terms of inbound tourist nationality, the model forecasts visitors coming predominantly from China (28%), followed by Japan (19%), the US (8%), and Taiwan (7%). For China, an estimated 529 million visits are anticipated, about a 7.6% increase from this year, though factors like consumer sentiment and US-China policy could impact this figure.
Yanolja Research aims to account for variables like transportation and economic indicators, including flights, ferry operations, and SNS trends, to predict national visitor variations. Seo Dae-cheol, a senior researcher, emphasized the importance of leveraging data and AI models for planning travel industry strategies.
CEO Park Seong-sik stated their goal is to deepen the understanding of the potential recovery and growth of the inbound travel market and recommend future industry directions through their AI-based model. They plan to support the efficient operation of tourism resources and infrastructure while exploring sustainable growth strategies for the tourism sector.