From October 20 to 23, the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing. Key agenda items include personnel appointments for the Central Military Commission, which has vacancies, and the 15th Five-Year Plan, which outlines China’s economic policy direction from 2026 to 2030. Discussions are expected on expanding domestic consumption sluggish due to the real estate downturn and establishing a self-reliant supply chain amidst U.S.-China conflict.
As per Party regulations, a plenary session, which involves 205 Central Committee members and 171 alternate members, is held at least once a year to decide on major policies and appointments. Typically, the five-year plan is discussed at the fifth plenary session, but the third session was postponed to 2024, so the discussions are taking place now.
The communique on the main points of the 15th Five-Year Plan and personnel appointments, which will outline China’s major economic goals and tasks up to 2030, will be released on October 23. According to past plans, the 13th Five-Year Plan from 2016 to 2020 aimed for an average annual growth rate of 6.5%, while the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021 to 2025), established in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, did not set a growth target. Researcher Yang Pyeong-seop from KIEP said that to achieve the long-term goals laid out with the 14th Five-Year Plan, an average growth rate of 4.5-5% is necessary.
The upcoming five-year plan is expected to focus on how to revive domestic consumption, which makes up about 40% of China’s GDP. Experts suggest that boosting consumption hinges on service consumption, such as travel or healthcare, to compensate for the stagnation in goods consumption due to prolonged economic downturns.
Furthermore, amid stringent U.S. restrictions on semiconductors exports to China, there will likely be an emphasis on technological self-reliance in high-tech areas such as AI, humanoids, and aerospace.
Additionally, attention will be on whether military personnel appointments to fill vacancies in the Central Military Commission will occur at the plenary session, following the disciplinary measures (expulsion from the party and military removal) announced on October 17 against He Weidong, who had been missing for over seven months, and Committee members like Miao Hua. These measures appear to be preemptive actions to prevent public focus shifting from economic issues to power struggles.
As He Weidong and Miao Hua, along with the ousting of Li Shangfu, former Defense Minister last year, reduced the Central Military Commission members from seven to four, there may be military appointments to fill the gaps. Professor Zhang Zhizhong from Taiwan’s Kainan University suggested that either Liu Zhengli (61) or Zhang Shengmin (67), current members of the Central Military Commission, could be promoted, and Dong Jun, the Defense Minister, might join the commission. Liu Zhengli, Joint Chief of Staff, unusually attended the Politburo’s group study on September 30. There is also speculation about the potential emergence of a civilian vice-chair, similar to Xi Jinping’s appointment at the 17th Fifth Plenum in 2010.
At the fourth plenary session, it’s expected at least 14 Central Committee replacements will occur. Neil Thomas, a researcher at the Asia Society’s China Political Institute, projected that of the 44 military Central Committee members, up to 27 (61%) could face disciplinary action, and among the 22 alternate members, 3 (14%) could be disciplined, marking an unprecedented purge since the party’s founding. Previously, the largest number of replacements occurred at the 18th Central Committee’s seventh plenary session in 2017, with 11 replacements ahead of President Xi’s second term.