**October Employment Report Expected on 18th-19th; PCE Release on 26th Uncertain; US House Vote Likely on 12th Afternoon**
The attention is on the resumption of delayed employment report releases following the resolution of the US federal government shutdown. Even after the US Congress resumes normal operations, delays in the announcement of employment figures are expected.
According to CNBC on the 11th (local time), **Goldman Sachs anticipates that if the shutdown ends this week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) under the Department of Labor will soon announce a revised schedule for upcoming data releases early next week.**
The BLS is responsible for not only the monthly employment report but also the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). The agency also releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), among other data. **Economists at Goldman Sachs predict that the October employment report could be released as early as the 18th or 19th of this month,** but other major indicators may be delayed further. Consequently, the announcement of November employment and inflation data could be pushed back by at least a week.
Economists Elsi Peng and Ronnie Walker from Goldman Sachs noted in a client memo that “almost all federal economic data releases for September and October were delayed due to the federal government shutdown.” Although the shutdown’s end seems imminent, it will take time for statistical agencies to catch up on delayed releases.
The US Department of Labor has not released any employment data since the August report published on September 5.
Nonetheless, with the historically lengthy shutdown expected to end soon, it is likely that official government statistics on employment and inflation will normalize before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting slated for December 9-10. If the US House completes its final vote and President Donald Trump signs the temporary budget bill, the shutdown could end as early as this weekend.
Previously, the US Senate held a plenary session on the 10th and passed the temporary federal budget bill with 60 votes in favor and 40 against. Mike Johnson, the Republican Speaker of the House, has asked House members to return to Washington, DC immediately, and a House vote is expected to take place as early as the 12th.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a critical indicator for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, will also be of interest once the shutdown ends. The PCE release is scheduled for November 26, but it is still uncertain whether it will occur on that date.
In addition, key indicators such as retail sales, durable goods orders, and preliminary quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, all released by the Department of Commerce, are pending announcement after the shutdown ends.
CNBC noted that “once the shutdown ends, reports indicating the flow of the economy are likely to show similar trends,” highlighting a gradually slowing labor market, inflation levels exceeding the range the Fed considers comfortable, and modest growth rates.
According to an economist survey compiled by Dow Jones, the nonfarm payrolls data for October is expected to show a reduction of 60,000 jobs. Goldman Sachs estimates this decrease at 50,000.