A rare window for a change in government has opened for the Japanese opposition for the first time in 13 years since they lost power to the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in 2012. The Constitutional Democratic Party and the Democratic Party for the People, which share a political history, are considering forming an alliance. They also plan to cooperate with the Japan Innovation Party, the second largest opposition party, to prevent Sanae Takaichi, the LDP president, from being elected as prime minister. However, the significant policy differences among these parties pose challenges to the negotiations.
According to reports from Japan’s Asahi Shimbun and Yomiuri Shimbun on the 14th, Yuichiro Tamaki, leader of the Democratic Party for the People, and Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party, discussed a plan to coordinate their votes in the upcoming prime ministerial nomination. The Constitutional Democratic Party previously expressed that “Leader Tamaki is a strong prime ministerial candidate,” indicating their willingness to support a candidate from a third party for a change in government. This comes in the wake of the Komeito party withdrawing from the ruling coalition with the LDP, reducing the ruling party’s seats in the Lower House from 220 (LDP 196, Komeito 24) to 196. In Japan’s parliamentary system, the leader of the largest party in the Lower House typically becomes prime minister through a parliamentary vote. Currently, with the opposition holding more seats, Takaichi’s election as prime minister is uncertain.
If the opposition parties unite, Tamaki could be elected prime minister in the parliamentary vote scheduled for the 21st, leading to a regime change. In an interview with Yomiuri, Tamaki expressed his readiness to become prime minister and the importance of collaborating with various parties. Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito also mentioned on a TV program that all possibilities, including voting for an opposition candidate, would be open for discussion within their party. The combined seats of the Constitutional Democratic Party (148 seats), Democratic Party for the People (27 seats), and Komeito would surpass those of the LDP with 199 seats. If the Japan Innovation Party (35 seats) joins, they would comfortably secure a majority of 233 seats in the Lower House.
However, achieving this opposition alliance might not be easy. The Constitutional Democratic Party and the Democratic Party for the People diverge significantly on key issues like security and energy policies. The Constitutional Democratic Party seeks to abolish unconstitutional aspects of security laws that would allow limited collective self-defense and has a party platform advocating for the reduction of nuclear power. The Democratic Party for the People holds opposing stances on these issues. Tamaki emphasized to Yomiuri that security policies are non-negotiable, stating, “Security is not a matter for compromise. There must not be even a slight wavering.” Mainichi Shimbun noted that the Democratic Party for the People’s demand for unified security and energy policies could be a substantial barrier to realizing the alliance.