All Hostages to be Released, Disarmament: Preparing an Ultimatum
Increasing distrust in Hamas’ ‘Salami Tactics’ for phased negotiations
Expected difficulties in negotiations amid speculation about the survival of only some hostages
[Seoul Economy]
The U.S. and Israel have shifted from a phased ceasefire approach based on releasing hostages in the Gaza Strip to aiming for a comprehensive resolution. Negotiations are expected to follow an ‘all or nothing’ strategy.
On the 3rd (local time), according to the New York Times (NYT), U.S. Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff, during a meeting with Israeli hostage families, stated, “President Trump wants all surviving hostages to be released at once,” adding, “Fragmented deals are no longer effective.”
This implies a refusal to engage in Hamas’ ‘salami negotiation,’ where hostages are exchanged in small amounts. It is reported that President Trump, alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is preparing an ultimatum demanding the release of all hostages and the disarmament of Hamas.
This shift in strategy stems from repeated failures to finalize phased agreements. In January, both sides initiated a two to three-phase discussion, partly exchanging hostages and detainees while halting combat for six weeks, but failed to extend this arrangement. Recent 60-day ceasefire negotiations mediated by a third country also stalled over Hamas’ demands, such as opening the Rafah crossing, Israeli military withdrawal, and relief supply control.
Hamas, meanwhile, continues psychological warfare by releasing videos of visibly malnourished hostages.
Currently, Hamas is holding approximately 50 hostages, and Israel estimates around 20 of them to be alive. During the large-scale terror attack on October 7, 2023, Hamas abducted over 250 hostages.
However, skepticism is growing in Israel regarding the likelihood of Hamas releasing all hostages, as they are seen as their sole bargaining chip.
In response, Prime Minister Netanyahu stated, “Hamas does not want an agreement,” emphasizing continued efforts for hostage release, neutralizing Hamas, and resolving threats in the Gaza Strip.
On the other hand, Hamas maintained its position that there would be “no disarmament without the establishment of a Palestinian state.”