‘Exports’ saved us, but even that is falling… Triple deterioration of domestic consumption, exports, and investment

September Business Survey Index 92.9…Significantly lower than the previous month
Overlapping concerns of global economic outlook slowdown and domestic consumption slump
Export index drops by 4.7 points…biggest decline in 25 months,

Yonhap News,
, ‘The September economic outlook took a significant hit as concerns over the global economic outlook worsening and domestic weakness overlapped.’,
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, ‘According to a survey conducted by the Korean Economic Association on 600 major companies based on sales revenue, the Business Survey Index (BSI) for September 2024 recorded 92.9, falling below the benchmark of 100. This is a 4.2-point decline compared to the previous month’s 97.1.’,
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, ‘If the BSI is above 100, it indicates a positive economic outlook compared to the previous month, while a value below 100 indicates a negative outlook.’,
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, ‘The Korean Economic Association stated, “The BSI outlook has been on an upward trend since May this year, approaching the benchmark of 100. However, due to recent concerns over the global economic slowdown, uncertainties in the Middle East, and worries about domestic weakness, the index value is estimated to have declined.”‘,
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Provided by the Korean Economic Association,
, ‘The September outlook for both manufacturing (93.9) and non-manufacturing (91.9) industries was weak. The manufacturing sector showed signs of weakness due to internal and external risks such as the U.S. economic slowdown, China’s economic slump, and domestic economic weakening.’,
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, ‘The non-manufacturing industry, which surpassed the benchmark of 100 with 105.5 in July, experienced a significant decline due to continued downturn in the construction industry and the end of the summer peak season.’,
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, ‘Among the detailed subsectors in manufacturing in August, pharmaceuticals (125.0), general machinery and equipment (114.3), and food and beverage (105.3) showed positive outlooks.’,
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, ‘However, sectors like textiles, clothing, leather, and footwear (64.3), electronics and communication equipment (80.0), petroleum refining and chemicals (90.9), automobiles and other transportation equipment (91.7), and metal and metal products (93.3) are all expected to deteriorate.’,
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, ‘Especially in the non-manufacturing sector, the leisure, accommodation, and food service industry (78.6) is expected to decline significantly as the summer vacation season comes to an end.’,
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, ‘In September, negative outlooks were observed in all survey areas. Particularly, domestic (96.3), export (94.5), and investment (91.4) sectors have simultaneously weakened for three consecutive months since July this year.’,
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Provided by the Korean Economic Association,
, ‘Domestic consumption has been falling below the benchmark for 27 consecutive months since July 2022 due to weakening household spending power caused by high interest rates.’,
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, ‘In terms of exports, the index value fell by 4.7 points compared to the previous month (99.2), showing the largest decline in 25 months since August 2022.’,
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, ‘The Korean Economic Association explained that recent export growth has been largely driven by the semiconductor boom, and excluding semiconductors, export growth has been minimal. With increased external uncertainties, business sentiment outlook has weakened.’,
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, ‘Lee Sang-ho, Director of Economic and Industrial Policy at the Korea Economic Association, analyzed, “Recent shocks in global capital markets, deteriorating situation in the Middle East, economic uncertainties between the U.S. and China, combined with concerns about domestic weakness are heightening internal and external uncertainties.”‘,
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