**”Many developments affecting South Korea, such as US Forces Korea and tariffs, in the first 100 hours,”**
Victor Cha, a Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), noted in an online discussion titled “Capital Cable” on the 12th of local time that the declaration of martial law and the political turmoil surrounding impeachment in South Korea could negatively affect the US-South Korea alliance following the inauguration of a potential second-term Trump administration.
Cha mentioned meeting with former aides of President-elect Donald Trump at CSIS the previous day, stating, “It’s not just the first 100 days, but numerous issues that could impact South Korea will emerge in the first 100 hours.” This includes matters related to US Forces Korea, tariffs, and the semiconductor law.
He emphasized the critical importance of personal bonds between leaders but noted the absence of anyone in South Korea who could handle such a task, suggesting that this situation could persist over time. He projected that it could continue past summer and possibly even longer, labeling it as a “very bad scenario.”
Cha also highlighted Trump’s general tariff pledge and South Korea’s trade surplus with the US as factors likely leading to tariffs of over 10% being imposed on South Korea, predicting this will certainly happen before South Korea regains leadership.
Moreover, Cha pointed out the issue of no one in Korea being capable of attempting individual negotiations at spots like Mar-a-Lago or the White House, unlike other global leaders.
Regarding South Korea’s diplomatic and security position in the region, he described South Korea as having become a very important player, but without a leader, its status could easily diminish and revert to a few years prior. He expressed concern that if South Korea were to fall back to such a position, it would be detrimental economically and security-wise for the entire region, as well as for South Korea and its alliance relations.
However, Cha downplayed the impeachment proposal from the opposition, which criticizes President Yoon’s foreign policy, saying, “I am not a constitutional expert, but that is not something warranting impeachment.”