The Biden administration in the United States is reportedly considering an export control policy that would limit the purchase quantities of artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductors to countries that are not allies. This news has led industry insiders in South Korea to speculate that this stance could be further reinforced with the inauguration of the Trump administration.
According to Bloomberg News on the 8th (local time), the Biden administration is discussing a plan to classify countries into three categories and restrict the export of AI chips used in data centers. The aim is to facilitate AI development among countries friendly to the U.S. The top tier includes U.S. allies such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Germany, and the Netherlands, who will continue to purchase U.S. semiconductors freely. In contrast, adversarial countries like China, Russia, and North Korea will be prohibited from importing U.S. semiconductors.
Most other countries will have a ceiling on the total computing power they can import. Bloomberg suggested that these countries could purchase more semiconductors than the limit if they meet the U.S. government’s security and human rights requirements.
The export control policy would utilize the “Verified End User” (VEU) rule, which allows comprehensive licensing for pre-approved companies to export specified items.
Industry experts believe that while South Korea may not be directly impacted by this policy, the supply of AI semiconductors is not yet stable. Dong-Hwan Kim, CEO of FortyTwoMaru, noted that Korea’s supply issue was due to a lack of product availability, not export restrictions. An anonymous industry insider also mentioned that South Korea’s procurement uncertainties are more influenced by Nvidia’s lead times and corporate sourcing capabilities, rather than trade policy issues, as restrictions on chip exports to adversarial countries are already established.
With the upcoming Trump administration, these export restriction policies are expected to be further strengthened. Another industry insider suggested that the Trump government, with its protectionist approach, might introduce stricter semiconductor export policies than the current administration.
The South Korean government, anticipating the Trump administration, emphasizes the need for a cautious approach. Song Sang-Hoon, Director-General of ICT Policy at the Ministry of Science and ICT, stated, “With nationalism prevalent worldwide, we must carefully consider the smooth supply of AI chips.”