**[the300] “Trump’s Negotiation Strategy: ‘Pressure and Deal Making'”… Although the US and South Korea Promise ‘North Korean Denuclearization’, Trump May Meet Kim Jong-un Directly**
US President Donald Trump danced after delivering a speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) annual event held in Oxon Hill, Maryland, on the 22nd (local time).
There are concerns that a similar deal-centric security negotiation might occur on the Korean Peninsula as President Trump demanded minerals worth $500 billion as military aid to Ukraine.
In the second Trump administration, it’s expected that even though the US and South Korea have promised ‘complete denuclearization of North Korea’, President Trump, who holds a transactional view of alliances, might sit down with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un for direct negotiations at any time. South Korea needs to prepare for Trump’s unique ‘shock-first, deal-later’ strategy, which doesn’t distinguish between adversaries and allies.
Professor Ban Gil-joo of the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security stated that despite the reaffirmation of North Korean denuclearization, there is still a possibility for ‘small deals’ with North Korea due to Trump’s transactional approach. He suggested that South Korea should develop leverage assets, such as shipbuilding and semiconductors, in US negotiations to maintain a shared perception of threat and the common goal of North Korea’s denuclearization.
According to the New York Times, President Trump recently proposed a new mineral agreement to Ukraine, demanding that Ukraine hand over half of its income from minerals and other natural resources, ports, and other infrastructure to the US, which could amount to $500 billion.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky commented on the agreement by saying, “If the US condition is ‘if you don’t sign, we won’t help,’ then the course of action is clear.” He acknowledged the necessity if they can’t proceed without securing the deal and the US’s assistance.
Previously, Trump proposed a 50% stake in Ukraine’s rare-earth minerals as war support, which Zelensky rejected, citing a lack of military and security guarantees from the US.
President Trump later hinted at engaging in peace talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, excluding Ukraine, and criticized Zelensky as a low-approval-rating dictator who refused elections.
Initially, Zelensky took a hard stance on the mineral agreement, but considering the exclusion from peace talks, he might respond to US demands. There is a concern that Trump could shock South Korea and gain leverage in negotiations, as he once advocated for withdrawing US troops from South Korea during his first term, demanding higher defense costs.
Special Envoy Rick Grenell stated at the CPAC annual event that Trump is someone who could appear alongside Kim Jong-un, indicating potential US-North Korea summits anytime, considering the US domestic political situation. This raises the possibility of bypassing Korea in the process.
One foreign affairs and security expert noted, “President Trump’s approach, post-inauguration, shows a pattern of applying initial shock and negotiating with allies and adversaries alike for US interest.” The expert emphasized that all cards are on the table in government negotiations—diplomacy, security, economy, and trade—requiring a united government team to deal with the second Trump administration.
Further, the expert suggested actively engaging in lobbying with US-friendly individuals within the country to advantageously use Trump’s ‘pressure and deal’ negotiation tactics, as South Korea faces economic and security challenges. They asserted that the government should lead a unified front, rather than having separate responses from ministries and companies.
Experts also emphasized the need to propose increasing LNG imports, expanding production facilities in the US, and raising defense costs, as Trump’s transactional motivations begin with reducing the US trade deficit. They highlighted using South Korea’s status as the chair of the US-led Mineral Security Partnership (MSP) to strengthen diverse supply chains for minerals, including rare earths, which the US relies on from China.