Trump Warns of Tariffs if Russia Doesn’t Negotiate on Ukraine… Unprecedented Warning
Top Sanction Option: “May Block Russian Oil and Gas Exports”
Russia: “Resolving the Root Cause of the Ukraine Crisis Comes First”
[Herald Economics Reporter Kim Young-cheol] U.S. President Donald Trump announced on the 22nd (local time) that if Russia does not agree to a peace settlement in the upcoming Ukraine negotiations, he would impose high tariffs and strong sanctions, raising questions about which sanctions he might implement. Different from the Biden administration, there are speculations that he might completely ban the export of Russian oil and gas.
On the 22nd (local time), the British Financial Times (FT) reported that there is a high possibility that President Trump will impose additional sanctions on Russia’s energy business, which he mentioned as potential targets.
Since his inauguration on the 20th, President Trump has been increasing pressure on Russia, insisting that it must participate in negotiations to end the Ukraine war.
On the 20th, he said of President Putin, “He must negotiate. By not negotiating, he is destroying Russia. Look at Russia’s economy and inflation,” and mentioned that tariffs could be used to sanction Russia if necessary.
He stated the previous day that further sanctions could be imposed if Russia does not participate in negotiations regarding the Ukraine war, criticizing President Putin, saying, “He is not doing well. Russia is bigger and has more troops to lose, but that’s not how to run a country.”
On the 22nd, in a post on his own social media (SNS), TruthSocial, President Trump stated to Russia, which invaded Ukraine, “If you don’t negotiate soon (soon), we will have no choice but to impose high taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on Russia and other countries shortly.”
He continued by saying, “Let’s quickly end the (Ukraine) war that would not have started if I were president,” and remarked that the hardline statement from the pro-Putin Trump is considered unusual.
The FT analyzed that, unlike the Biden administration, which was reluctant to ban Russian oil and gas exports due to concerns about increasing chaos in the global energy market, the Trump administration might consider such sanctions.
Former President Biden introduced a price cap on Russian oil, but Russia circumvented it, rendering the sanctions ineffective, it is evaluated. The price cap was a sort of sanction measure to prevent Russia from funding the Ukraine war through oil exports by not allowing Russian oil to trade above a certain price.
In fact, since December 2022, the G7, European Union (EU), and Australia have enforced a price cap of $60 per barrel on Russian oil. The intent was to ensure the flow of Russian oil in the world market while making it difficult for Russia to cover war costs and keep oil prices low.
However, the U.S. Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported in October 2023 that Russia’s oil and gas tax revenue increased by more than double from the previous month and over 25% compared to the same month last year, indicating that various Russian circumvention tactics have rendered the price cap ineffective.
Regarding this, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury nominee Scott Besant stated in a Senate hearing on the 16th that the Biden administration’s sanctions against Russia are “nowhere nearly sufficient,” and said, “I fully support raising the level of sanctions on Russia’s major oil companies to bring Russia to the negotiating table.”
As Trump continually issues hardline statements against President Putin, within the U.S., there is an evaluation that this is a negotiation strategy by President Trump, who comes from a business background. It is interpreted as continuing his characteristic bluffing remarks to achieve early results in ending the Ukraine war at the beginning of his term.
U.S. broadcaster CNBC analyzed Trump’s mention of tariffs as a means of sanctioning Russia, stating that “Trump is revealing his intent to deploy the economic weapons he could use on U.S. allies like Mexico and Canada against Russia if they do not succumb to his will.”
U.S. political media outlet The Hill also reported that “Trump has been urging ceasefire negotiations on both sides of Russia and Ukraine for months” and that “Trump’s statements today intend to maintain and expand sanctions to bring Moscow to the negotiating table.”
Meanwhile, Russia has expressed that it needs to watch more of what the negotiations envisioned by President Trump entail.
According to Reuters, Dmitry Polyanskiy, Deputy Head of the Russian Permanent Mission to the UN, stated, “It’s not just about ending the war. The most important issue is resolving the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis,” and “We have to see what President Trump means by ‘deal’ and negotiation.”