**Ishiba’s Chances for Reelection Increase**
**Noda Might Not Run in Prime Minister Vote**
A week before the special parliamentary session to elect the next Prime Minister, the contest is solidifying between current Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and former Prime Minister and Constitutional Democratic Party leader Yoshihiko Noda. The casting vote held by the Democratic Party for the People, along with the Japan Innovation Party, the second opposition party, likely abstaining from the final vote, increases the possibility of Prime Minister Ishiba being reelected even if the ruling coalition fails to gain a majority.
According to the Sankei Shimbun on the 4th, Junya Ogawa, the secretary-general of the Constitutional Democratic Party, expressed concerns during an interview with BS Asahi TV, stating, “Exercising the right to nominate the Prime Minister is the most significant responsibility during a parliament member’s term.” He highlighted that about 70 members of the House of Representatives might end up with invalid votes, asking for serious consideration. Ogawa’s comments show dissatisfaction with the Japan Innovation Party, the third largest opposition party after the Democratic Party for the People’s decision not to support Noda. The Japan Innovation Party decided on the 1st to vote for their party leader Nobuyuki Baba during the final vote. Among opposition parties, the Democratic Party for the People openly stated that their members would write the name of their leader, Yuichiro Tamaki, if a final vote occurs.
This situation has led to evaluations of a strong possibility for Ishiba’s reelection as Prime Minister. Smaller opposition parties like the Communist Party and the Social Democratic Party have expressed support for Noda, but Ishiba still leads. According to an Asahi Shimbun poll conducted from the 2nd to the 3rd, support for the Ishiba Cabinet has dropped sharply to 34% from 46% at the beginning of his term last month. However, only 24% believe Ishiba should resign. Sankei Shimbun analyzed it as a “trend towards the inauguration of a second Ishiba Cabinet despite the unstable minority party status.” With the likelihood of Ishiba prevailing in a runoff, there is speculation that Noda may not run in the Prime Minister vote. Within the Constitutional Democratic Party, there is considerable support to focus on winning the House of Councillors election next July and reclaiming power.