“The runoff for the unified market is ‘Gwangju vs. Daejeon’… A fateful week for Min Hyung-bae and Kim Young-rok” [Mudeung’s Morning]

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, ‘◇ Jeong Gil-hoon: Let’s start with the main selection of the Democratic Party’s candidate for the Jeollanam-do Gwangju Integration Special Mayor. As you know, there was no candidate with a majority vote. Min Hyeong-bae and Kim Yeong-rok moved on to the runoff election, right?’,
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, ‘◆ Oh Seung-yong: That’s correct. It was a three-way race, and the main election took place over three days, with Min Hyeong-bae and Kim Yeong-rok proceeding to the runoff. Candidate Shin Jeong-hoon was eliminated. The runoff election is scheduled from April 12 to 14, over Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday of this week, and we should know who the Democratic candidate is around 6:30 PM on Tuesday the 14th. The lengthy schedule for the runoff is due to having to extract a new security number for the runoff after the security number extraction during the main election, which takes about five days, making this a physical requirement. Given that the Democratic Party’s primaries often determine the election outcome, this fierce competition for Jeollanam-do Gwangju Special Mayor could be considered the de facto election, and many will likely take interest. TV debates are scheduled, so it’d be good if the interest for the final choice continues.’,
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, ‘◇ Jeong Gil-hoon: It’s an important week for the candidates left. Candidate Shin Jeong-hoon was unfortunately eliminated. He even unified with Mayor Kang Gi-jung of Gwangju before the main election, but it wasn’t enough to overcome the two-strong structure of Min Hyeong-bae and Kim Yeong-rok.’,
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Photo Credit: Yonhap News,
, ‘◆ Oh Seung-yong: That’s right. I mentioned in other media interviews that when 3rd and 4th place candidates unify, it seems like they might beat the 1st or 2nd place, but oftentimes they just become 3rd place. This means that the combined approval rates of 3rd and 4th place don’t add up to 100% because, according to research, about 40% usually deviate even in presidential elections where voter loyalty is strong. In local elections, due to lower voter loyalty, many deviators follow the mainstream, what’s called the “bandwagon” effect. Hence, candidates who unify from behind usually still end up in third place, which suggests the unification effect is limited. Additionally, in this dual-strong structure of Min Hyeong-bae and Kim Yeong-rok representing Gwangju and Jeonnam respectively, there seem to be strategic shortcomings in Shin Jeong-hoon’s targeting approach.’,
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, ‘◇ Jeong Gil-hoon: What do you mean by that?’,
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, ‘◆ Oh Seung-yong: Shin Jeong-hoon’s support base is in the Gwangju area. To expand his support, he needed to focus on the Gwangju and nearby areas, but in trying to catch Kim Yeong-rok, his strategy seemed outwardly successful but didn’t yield much practical gain. Allegations of proxy voting were made by Shin Jeong-hoon’s camp towards the end, but similar issues occur due to older voters facing challenges when responding in survey-based primaries. It sounds like there are structural vulnerabilities in the Democratic Party’s primary rules which are hard to address shortly. To sum up, the unification effect was smaller than expected, the dual-strong structure was sturdier, and Shin Jeong-hoon lacked success in targeting Kim Yeong-rok effectively.’,
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, ‘◇ Jeong Gil-hoon: The runoff election from the 12th to the 14th will be held in a public participation format. As you mentioned, Min Hyeong-bae and Kim Yeong-rok have their geographical support bases in Gwangju and Jeonnam. Their support demographics are split by age, with 40s and 50s, and 60s and 70s respectively, suggesting a fiercely competitive week ahead.’,
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Photo Credit: Yonhap News,
, “◆ Oh Seung-yong: Based on surveys, there are two main points to discuss. First is regional support; as previously mentioned, there’s a Gwangju versus Jeonnam framework, which is mostly accurate. Min Hyeong-bae, having served as Gwangsan District Mayor and a Gwangju National Assembly member, has strong Gwangju support. Kim Yeong-rok, with experience across Jeonnam’s 22 localities, has stability appealing to Jeonnam voters. This makes the choice clear for voters. By age, 40s and 50s back Min Hyeong-bae, especially the 50s, who are opinion leaders in Honam, and Gwangju shows a clear preference for Min Hyeong-bae due to this. For Kim Yeong-rok to get ahead in the runoff, he needs to appeal beyond his stable support among older, moderate voters towards expanding into Min Hyeong-bae’s demographic. The pivotal question is whether Shin Jeong-hoon’s supporters will lean towards Min Hyeong-bae or Kim Yeong-rok without explicit endorsement. I view this as a ‘Gwangju versus Jeonnam’ battle – Gwangju support will likely decide the winner. The east Jeonnam region sees close competition, but if Gwangju becomes a decisive factor, both candidates should focus their final efforts there.”,
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, ‘◇ Jeong Gil-hoon: We’ve examined the situation in the Democratic Party’s primary for Jeonnam Gwangju Integration Special Mayor. Now, let’s look at the opposition’s position. The People’s Power party will receive additional nominations for the Jeonnam Gwangju Integration Special Mayor candidate from the 9th to 10th, right?’,
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, ‘◆ Oh Seung-yong: Correct. Amidst talks of enduring criticism, candidate Lee Jeong-hyeon has expressed defiance, even referring to a “30% revolution” in terms of winning 30% of Gwangju’s vote. However, there is criticism within the party, questioning his approach despite his claim of dedication.’,
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Photo Credit: Yonhap News,
, ‘Despite proclaiming dedication, many within the People’s Power party see this not as dedication but as evasion in the light of chaotic candidate nominations under judiciary oversight. With ongoing legal issues regarding candidate management, Lee Jeong-hyeon’s run is seen by some as dodging accountability for those mishaps. He plans to run for a position in Honam, but many within the party question his motives amidst the party’s internal issues.’,
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, ‘◇ Jeong Gil-hoon: Let’s talk about the Democratic Party’s primary for the five Gwangju districts’ heads. In four of the five districts, incumbent district heads are confirmed as candidates. Meanwhile, Buk-gu District’s head Moon-in, who is not running, has led to a primary between candidates Shin Sujeong and Jeong Daeun. What’s your outlook?’,
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, ‘◆ Oh Seung-yong: Whoever wins, with the Democratic Party’s primary often being akin to the general election, the first female district head in Gwangju seems likely. During the last local elections in 2022, there were only five women district heads nationwide, all in the capital region. This will be a first for the Honam region, highlighting its significance. Shin Sujeong has solid experience with three terms as a Buk-gu assembly member and two terms on the city council, building resilience in her support. Jeong Daeun is young, fresh, and advocates young reformist politics, starting as the ‘2% miracle,’ having initially polled at only 2%. The decisive factor will be ‘Moon-sim,’ referring to district head Moon-in’s influence.’,
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, ‘◇ Jeong Gil-hoon: By ‘Moon-sim,’ you mean Moon-in?’,
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, “◆ Oh Seung-yong: Yes, exactly. His influence is clear in the primaries. Although Shin Sujeong was favored, the runoff’s outcome might pivot around Moon Sang-pil and his supporters. Shin need’s Moon’s support to win, while it’s essential for Jeong. Hence, efforts to gain his support continue.”,
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, ‘◇ Jeong Gil-hoon: The Democratic Party’s Jeollanam-do mayoral and county chief primaries also begin today for 15 districts.’,
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, ‘◆ Oh Seung-yong: Indeed, they run from April 6 to 7, with 50% party member votes and 50% safe-number public polls. If no majority winner from the initial rounds, a runoff takes place. In seven-way primaries like Yeosu or six-way like Mu-an, there will be preliminary rounds narrowing to three candidates. While the local context pits incumbency against generational shift, as seen in Sumchon.’,
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, ‘◇ Jeong Gil-hoon: The Jeollanam-do Election Commission reported potential illicit phone bank operations linked to vote-buying by candidate Park Seong-hyun in Gwangyang, leading to Democratic Party disqualification.’,

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Photo Credit: Yonhap News,
, ‘◆ Oh Seung-yong: While phone rooms are technically legal, illicit usage arises when outside campaign offices, with paid staff, or unauthorized data come into play. Involving a large amount of cash intended as compensation indicates impropriety, as was the case here with cash and illegally handled party membership lists.’,

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, ‘◇ Jeong Gil-hoon: Easter yesterday saw Prime Minister Kim Min-seok and Democratic Party leader Jeong Cheong-rae attentively visit Gwangju, which seemed more than mere ceremonial appearances with the Democratic leadership race on the horizon and intent to gain support in Honam.’,

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, ‘◆ Oh Seung-yong: With rising stakes, such political pilgrimages potentially signal alignment intentions, highlighting regional influence pursuits despite claims of neutral intent. Although campaign activities are managed to avoid interference, impressions of strategic involvement can arise.’,

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, ‘◇ Jeong Gil-hoon: These actions unveil implications for the June 3 local elections and subsequent Democratic Party leadership race, warranting careful observation.’,
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, ‘◆ Oh Seung-yong: Thank you.’,
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, ‘◇ Jeong Gil-hoon: That was Oh Seung-yong, Director of Metavoice.’
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