US engages in talks with Rodriguez amid tensions over potential ‘Maduro 2.0’
Concerns over possible civil war if talks fail, with caution advised against an Iraq-like scenario
Opposition doubts on Machado’s leadership potential
As U.S. President Donald Trump has ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, the world is closely watching the unfolding political landscape in Venezuela. On January 4th (local time), the Trump administration stated that its policy goal for Venezuela was to bring about change beneficial to the U.S. While there is anticipation for quick normalization both domestically and internationally, the possibility of serious turmoil remains.
Currently, the Trump administration is engaging in dialogues with Maduro allies, led by Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who has been appointed as interim president by the Venezuelan Supreme Court. President Trump remarked that Rodriguez is essentially willing to do whatever is deemed necessary to make Venezuela great again. On the same day, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Rodriguez had expressed a willingness to do whatever it takes.
However, during an emergency cabinet meeting on January 3, Vice President Rodriguez maintained a defiant stance against the U.S., declaring that “Maduro is the only president in Venezuela.” Secretary Rubio expressed hope that Rodriguez would choose a different path than that of Maduro.
Vice President Rodriguez, the daughter of Jorge Antonio Rodriguez—a leader of Venezuela’s leftist guerrilla movement—entered politics under Hugo Chávez’s regime and, alongside her brother Jorge Rodriguez, the Speaker of the National Assembly, is seen as a key figure in Maduro’s government.
Even if Vice President Rodriguez successfully leads negotiations with the U.S., the future remains uncertain. Cooperative efforts with Diosdado Cabello, Interior Minister, and Vladimir Padrino, Defense Minister—both pivotal figures in Maduro’s regime—are inevitable. These individuals are each wanted by the U.S., with bounties of $25 million and $15 million, respectively, which may trigger massive public backlash labeling this as “Maduro 2.0.”
In an NBC interview, Rubio also stated that it’s too premature to discuss Venezuelan elections at this time.
Nicholas Watson, Managing Director at consulting firm Teneo, told Bloomberg that the U.S. seems open to allowing some pro-Chavez factions to remain in government positions as long as they align with pro-American stances, which could prevent a dangerous power vacuum. However, such pragmatic agreements with figures of questionable legitimacy may be hard for Venezuelans to accept.
The Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei) noted that during Trump’s first administration in 2019, the U.S. backed Juan Guaidó’s interim government to overthrow Maduro, but this effort lost national support as it was seen as too aligned with U.S. interests.
There’s also a scenario where negotiations between the U.S. and Venezuela could collapse. In this case, Venezuela, lacking political cohesion, might fall into a civil war in the worst-case scenario.
The Venezuelan military’s anti-American stance is a critical factor. Led by Minister Padrino, the military has thwarted several coup attempts by the opposition over the past decade, maintaining Maduro’s regime. Padrino described the arrest of President Maduro as “imperial aggression” in a video speech. Infiltration of Sanctions Cartel de los Soles within the military and government could lead to chaos.
David FitzGerald, former CIA Deputy Director for South America, mentioned past events in Iraq post-Saddam Hussein’s removal, suggesting vigilance at this stage, although it hasn’t yet reached that level.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) commented that for President Trump to succeed in managing Venezuela in a way that serves U.S. interests, cooperation with military leadership is crucial.
Another option could see the Venezuelan opposition taking over power, but the feasibility seems low for now.
Maria Corina Machado, who won the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, emphasizes that Edmundo González is the legitimate president elected in the 2024 elections, signaling their intent to take over the government.
However, President Trump noted that “it is very difficult for her to become a leader at this point,” describing her as a “very good woman but not someone who commands respect.” Rubio also stated that most opposition figures are currently not in Venezuela, hence immediate discussion would continue with the present Venezuelan administration rather than with Machado or González.
Nikkei pointed out that although Machado has gained national support, there can be backlash due to relationships with the Trump administration.