The upcoming U.S. presidential election, which is just five days away, is drawing significant attention, particularly regarding when the winner will be announced. This year’s election is extremely close, with the national approval ratings showing only a 1% difference, and early voting reaching record levels. As a result, it may take several days for a “victory declaration” to be made. According to AFP, it took four days for Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate, to declare victory in the 2020 election, suggesting that this year might also require quite some time to conclude.
The U.S. presidential election system differs from others in that it is based on an electoral college of 538 members, with the winning candidate needing to secure more than half (270) of the electoral votes. This year, seven key battleground states — Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona — will likely determine the outcome. These states account for 93 electoral votes, with Pennsylvania, which has the highest number at 19, considered a pivotal state.
The final days before Election Day show a tight race both nationwide and in these battleground states, making the situation unpredictably close. In the winner-takes-all system used by most U.S. states, the candidate receiving even a single vote more than the rival gets all of that state’s electoral votes, which can delay a victory declaration.
Edison Research’s Joe Lenski, who provides exit polls and results to major U.S. broadcasters, remarked that the 2024 election will primarily be decided in these seven battleground states. While results could emerge by the evening of Election Day or early the next morning in many states, the close competition might require several days to acquire enough data to make predictions.
The increase in early voting is another factor that could affect the vote-counting process. The early voting rate increased from 33% in the 2012 election to 40% in 2016, and surged to 69% in 2020 due to the pandemic. According to the University of Florida’s Election Research Center, by October 30th of this year, 59 million out of 160 million voters had already cast their ballots early.
Early voting, which includes in-person and mail-in ballots, can delay results, especially in states where mail ballots are counted only on Election Day. In battleground states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, mail ballot counting starts on Election Day, which was why it took four days to determine the Pennsylvania winner in the 2020 election. In Nevada, mail ballots postmarked by Election Day that arrive within four days are still counted, potentially delaying results further.
The phenomenon of the “red mirage” observed during the 2020 election, where early counts showed a Republican lead, but later mail ballot counts flipped the race, might be altered this year as Republicans actively promote early voting.
Ben Ginsberg, an election lawyer, pointed out in the New York Times that it remains uncertain whether Republican encouragement of early voting will change this pattern. Additionally, any delay in results in such a close contest might lead to disputes over the results.
Traditionally, the candidate who loses once the winner secures a majority of electoral votes concedes in a “concession speech,” finalizing the victor. However, former President Trump contested the results in 2020, setting a precedent that may arise again if results are delayed.
In previous elections, results were declared the night of Election Day in 2012 and early the following morning in 2016, but it took until the morning of November 7th to declare a winner in the 2020 election.
A recent Reuters-Ipsos poll conducted with 1,150 American adults (975 registered voters) from October 25-27 indicated that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump were neck and neck with 44% and 43% support, respectively. Another CNN-SSRS poll from October 23-28 showed Harris holding a narrow lead over Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin, while both candidates were tied at 48% in Pennsylvania.