US-Ukraine Mineral Agreement Negotiations…Security Guarantees Not Included
The negotiations for a mineral agreement between the US and Ukraine, which centers on transferring half of Ukraine’s mineral revenues to the US, are reportedly nearing their conclusion. The deal is said to involve an amount of $500 billion, over 450 times Ukraine’s natural resource revenue from last year, valued at $1.1 billion. This agreement marks a shift in US-Ukraine relations, moving from a support-based relationship to a commercial transaction.
On the 22nd (local time), former US President Donald Trump expressed optimism, stating at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Maryland that an agreement with Ukraine on minerals is within reach. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also mentioned in a video address on the 21st that the US and Ukrainian negotiation teams are working on a draft agreement.
He emphasized the importance of fine-tuning the details to ensure effective results, hoping for a fair outcome. However, there are reports of last-minute coordination issues, suggesting a potential delay in reaching a final agreement. CNN reported that President Zelensky finds the current conditions unacceptable and is seeking to negotiate amendments. AFP also highlighted that despite increasing US pressure, Zelensky is not prepared to sign such an agreement yet. Ukrainian parliament speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk announced that final negotiations would begin on the 24th.
The agreement terms appear to pose significant challenges for Ukraine, with a New York Times report shedding light on a revised draft that stipulates half of the revenues from Ukraine’s natural resources, including oil, gas, and minerals, as well as from ports and infrastructure, would be controlled by a US-dominated fund until contributions reach $500 billion—an amount more than four times the US’s current aid.
The New York Times noted the ambiguity of whether the Trump administration sees this as compensation for past military and financial support or as a condition for future aid. The agreement resembles a previously rejected draft that Ukraine deemed too harsh, with some clauses now even more stringent.
The idea of exchanging US support for Ukraine’s natural resources originated from Ukraine, but the absence of clear security guarantees and the US’s demand for 50% of Ukraine’s mineral and energy revenue have stalled the final agreement. Bloomberg criticizes the proposal as reminiscent of “colonial demands.”
The Trump administration argues that a mutually beneficial economic partnership could indirectly bolster Ukraine’s security. White House National Security Advisor Michael Waltz remarked that there’s no better security in partnering economically with the US. A US official mentioned that the agreement would bind the nations closer and provide the US with critical resources independent of China, creating stronger incentives to protect Ukraine.
Ukraine possesses Europe’s largest reserves of titanium, essential for aerospace and naval alloys; lithium, a critical battery material; and a small amount of rare earth elements, vital for advanced technology and military industries. However, significant investment is needed for development, and some reserves are located in Russian-occupied areas, limiting access. Nevertheless, Ukraine’s rich mineral resources remain attractive to the US.
Last week, the US sent Treasury Secretary Scott Besen-T to Kyiv to present a draft of the mineral agreement, but Zelensky immediately rejected it, heightening tensions between the countries. Subsequently, Trump publicly criticized Zelensky as a “dictator,” while Zelensky retorted that Trump was “trapped by Russian misinformation,” escalating the conflict. However, the visit of US special envoy Keith Kellogg to Kyiv, where he met with President Zelensky, reportedly advanced the negotiations.