‘Political Funding Reform’ Triggers Disagreement 【Financial News Tokyo, Correspondent Seo Hye-jin】 With Japan’s Komeito Party withdrawing from the coalition led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the prospects for electing the next Prime Minister are becoming uncertain. The Komeito Party, which holds 24 seats in the House of Representatives, has announced that it will not vote for the LDP’s new leader, Sanae Takaichi, in the Prime Minister nomination vote scheduled for this month. In addition, opposition parties are seeking to unite around a single candidate. There is also the possibility of the LDP losing power for the first time since the end of 2012.
According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei) on the 12th, both the House of Representatives (465 members) and the House of Councillors (242 members) will conduct a vote to elect the Prime Minister. The Komeito Party, which has been at odds with the LDP over issues such as ‘slush fund scandals,’ declared its withdrawal from the coalition on the 10th. If a runoff election is held, the Komeito Party plans to “abstain or write down the name of our party leader.”
Nikkei has outlined three possible scenarios for the outcome of the Prime Minister election, given the complex political situation. The first scenario is Takaichi being elected Prime Minister solely by the LDP. The second scenario is Takaichi being elected with support from some opposition parties. The third scenario is the election of an opposition candidate.
If all 465 members of the House of Representatives vote, the majority threshold is 233 votes. The LDP holds 196 seats, and when the Komeito was part of the coalition, the two parties combined held 220 seats. The total number of seats held by the three main opposition parties—Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP, 148 seats), Japan Restoration Party (35 seats), Democratic Party for the People (DPFP, 27 seats)—is 210 seats. In the past, even if these parties united, they couldn’t surpass the LDP-Komeito coalition. However, with the Komeito’s withdrawal, the possibility of a change in government has now surfaced.
If the opposition fails to present a single candidate and Takaichi secures support from some opposition lawmakers, she could become Prime Minister. The LDP has identified the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) as a potential ally. The LDP is also hopeful that seven independent lawmakers might cast their votes for Takaichi.