**North Korea Ignores CRBM Launch Talk, Criticizes Joint Drills Routinely, Possibly Considering Nuclear Talks with Trump**
On March 10, the first day of the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercise “Freedom Shield” (FS), North Korea launched several ballistic missiles suspected to be close-range ballistic missiles (CRBMs). However, North Korea has maintained silence regarding this launch. Analysts suggest that while North Korea expresses displeasure over the joint drills, it is calibrating its provocations to avoid excessively provoking the United States.
North Korean state media did not report on the missile launches but published a commentary on page 6 of the Rodong Sinmun, criticizing the FS exercise as an “aggressive nuclear war exercise.” Additionally, the newspaper reported that over 1200 graduating students from a high school in North Hwanghae Province pledged to serve at frontline border posts as a patriotic act against any infringement by “U.S. imperialists and South Korean military goons.”
Observers note that North Korea’s response resembles its usual level of reaction to such drills, suggesting strategic modulation in its provocations to possibly facilitate nuclear talks with U.S. President Donald Trump. Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Unification Research Institute, indicated that North Korea may have judged that combining provocative actions and rhetoric could excessively provoke the U.S., hence it chose not to publicize the missile launches.
Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies, speculated that North Korea might be strategically signaling its intent to resume dialogue with the U.S., using the suspension of South Korea-U.S. drills as a precondition or intending to publicly raise political and military issues in future talks.
There is also a possibility that North Korea could report the military provocations post-FS exercise, similar to their actions in October 2022. North Korea often showcases its response capabilities through such announcements.
Furthermore, the missile launches may not have been reported because they were part of North Korea’s routine winter military training, which typically occurs from December to March, according to officials from South Korea’s Ministry of Unification. The Joint Chiefs of Staff also noted that while it disclosed the missile launch to the media, short-range missile provocations are typically not publicized, but the FS exercise context was considered.
While close-range ballistic missiles, with a range of less than 300 km, pose significant threats to the Seoul metropolitan area, they are not considered direct threats by the U.S. Hong Min added that while North Korea might continue provocations during the FS exercise period, it is unlikely to engage in provocations that could excessively provoke the U.S. such as launching medium- or long-range missiles.