“Millions of casualties in case of a full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula… damages exceeding 550 trillion won”

Bloomberg estimates a 3.9% global GDP decrease, with Korea at 37.5%…concerns about global economic downturn
Probability of war very low…in any scenario, Kim Jong-un death and North Korea in ruins,
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Kim Jong-un, North Korean leader, meeting with Vladimir Putin, Russian President in Pyongyang
[AP Yonhap News Agency file photo. Redistribution and DB prohibited.],
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, ‘ (Seoul=Yonhap News) Reporter Joo Jong-guk = While the probability of a war breaking out on the Korean Peninsula is very low, if a full-scale war were to erupt, it is estimated that millions of people would die and economic losses would exceed $4 trillion (about 5,527 trillion won).’,
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, ‘ It is forecasted that in the first year of the war, global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would decrease by 3.9%, and there would be significant disruptions in major supply chains including semiconductors, leading to a global recession.’,
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, ‘ The scale of these damages is more than twice that of the losses caused by the Ukraine war.’,
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, ‘ Bloomberg Economics, the global economic analysis firm of Bloomberg Group, used a composite model analysis that can reflect various variables to predict the possibility of a full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula and the resulting damages.’,
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, ” According to this prediction, the probability of a full-scale war between North and South Korea on the Korean Peninsula is very low. However, the possibility is not ‘zero’.”,
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, ‘ When Russian President Vladimir Putin visited North Korea after 24 years and met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un last month, the partnership of the Cold War era was revived, and a new defense agreement was signed, adding another threat to the world.’,
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, ‘ Korea stands as a major semiconductor production country on a geopolitically tense peninsula, and if a war were to break out, the human and economic losses would be substantial, Bloomberg News reported.’,
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, ‘ In the event of a full-scale war, it is forecasted that millions of people would die, and there could be $4 trillion in economic losses to the global economy in the first year, with a 3.9% damage to GDP.’,
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, ‘ During the Korean War in 1950, the economic size of North and South Korea was less than 0.4% of global GDP, but now South Korea alone exceeds 1.5%. Even this underestimates the importance of Korea on major supply chains.’,
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, ‘ In the metropolitan region, which is the power base of the South Korean government, approximately 26 million people live, which is about half of the country’s population.’,
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, ‘ The region accounts for 81% of Korea’s semiconductor production and 34% of overall manufacturing output.’,
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, ‘ The products are exported to China, Japan, Europe, and the United States from various ports, including the fourth busiest Busan Port in the world.’,
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, ‘ Samsung Electronics, one of the top 30 companies in the world by market capitalization, produces 41% of global DRAM semiconductors and 33% of NAND memory. These products are exported to a variety of companies from Apple to China’s Xiaomi.’,
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, ‘ Wi Sung-lak, who served as South Korea’s chief nuclear envoy from 2009 to 2011, said that there is about a 30% chance of armed conflict on the Korean Peninsula in the coming years, and such conflicts could escalate in a larger form.’,
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, ‘ North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may order a nuclear attack if he feels an existential threat to his regime. According to a study by the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses last year, it is estimated that North Korea possesses 80 to 90 warheads that can be used for nuclear attacks against South Korea, Japan, and even the United States.’,
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, ‘ In the event of such a full-scale conflict, the South Korean economy is expected to contract by 37.5% due to the impact on industrial production and exports.’,
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, ‘ China is also expected to see a 5% decrease in GDP due to factors such as semiconductor supply shortages and reduced trade with the United States, while the U.S. economy would suffer a 2.3% blow from a lack of semiconductors and market downturn.’,
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, ‘ Global GDP is projected to decrease by 3.9%, with Southeast Asia, Japan, and Taiwan, which heavily rely on Korean semiconductors and are vulnerable to disruptions in maritime logistics, expected to be heavily impacted.’,
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, ‘ In all scenarios of a Korean Peninsula war, it ends with Chairman Kim’s death and North Korea becoming a ruin.’,
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, ‘ Professor Rami Kim of the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies evaluated Kim Jong-un as “rational enough not to commit suicide.”‘,
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