On the 15th in Japan’s National Diet in Tokyo, Sanae Takaichi, the president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) (right), and Yoshihiko Noda, the leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party, are meeting. UPI Yonhap News.
Negotiations to form a coalition government between Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the conservative opposition party, the Japan Restoration Party, are rapidly advancing. The prospect of the “unification of opposition party candidates for prime minister,” which the Constitutional Democratic Party has shown great enthusiasm for, appears bleak due to differences in party ideologies.
On the 16th, the LDP decided to start serious policy discussions with the Japan Restoration Party to form a new coalition government. Following the departure of the Komeito Party from the coalition on the 10th, the LDP has been searching for a new coalition partner among opposition parties with around 30 seats in the National Diet. After Yuichiro Tamaki, leader of the Democratic Party for the People, essentially expressed rejection, the Japan Restoration Party has rapidly emerged as a candidate.
On the same day, Hiromu Yoshimura, the leader of the Japan Restoration Party (and Governor of Osaka Prefecture), met with LDP President Sanae Takaichi and told reporters, “We sincerely need to carry out fundamental structural reforms in Japan.” He added, “Even if there is risk involved, if there is an opportunity, we should take on the challenge for Japan’s sake.”
The Japan Restoration Party has entered negotiations, setting the plan to designate Osaka as the second capital and the reduction of social insurance premiums as “non-negotiable conditions” for the coalition. Regarding concerns that a small party might lose its identity when forming a coalition with the ruling party, they have indirectly expressed their strong intent to negotiate by stating, “We will take the risk.” On the matter of strengthening regulations on political donations from corporations and organizations, which the LDP is reluctant about, they indicated a possibility of modifying their stance, stating, “We are considering a wide range of issues as matters for negotiation and ultimately want to reach a comprehensive decision.”
As a conservative opposition party, the Japan Restoration Party’s stance on issues like constitutional reform and diplomacy/security is not very different from the LDP. However, challenges remain, such as their competitive relationship with the LDP in the Osaka region, the political base of the Japan Restoration Party.
Japan operates under a parliamentary cabinet system, where a new prime minister is essentially elected through the House of Representatives (lower house, total 465 seats) election. If no candidate achieves a majority in the first round, the top 1-2 candidates proceed to a runoff where a new prime minister is selected based on majority votes. Currently, if the LDP, with their 196 seats, partners with the Japan Restoration Party (35 seats), they could approach within two seats of the majority (233 seats needed). Unless the opposition unifies, it is likely that LDP President Sanae Takaichi could be appointed the new prime minister. Another option is to recruit some independent conservative candidates to secure a majority.
While the LDP has found a breakthrough, the leading opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, faces setbacks in its plan for regime change through “unifying opposition party candidates for prime minister.” The Japan Restoration Party, which was at the negotiation table, has shifted towards the LDP. Additionally, the Democratic Party for the People, another key player, has shown a lukewarm response. Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party, said, “We don’t yet know if the LDP has taken the Japan Restoration Party away from us, and many things will happen in the coming days,” but added, “We have no hidden cards, now we must proceed in a straightforward manner.”
As political maneuverings continue between Japan’s ruling and opposition parties, the schedule for electing a successor to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is becoming increasingly chaotic. The Ishiba government, with an eye on electing the next prime minister, has notified each party of a special session of the National Diet on the 21st, but the opposition is not responding. The Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported, “The LDP proposed holding a prime ministerial election in the special session, but since negotiations between political parties (regarding prime ministerial candidates) are ongoing, the opposition is not setting a date for the election but is continuing to negotiate.”
Tokyo/Hong Seok-jae, Correspondent.