Bruce Klingner from the Heritage Foundation in the U.S. mentioned that Trump is likely to demand more from South Korea and Japan in terms of countering China. Following President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, if Korea remains under an acting presidential system, it will be challenging to hold a bilateral summit between Korea or the U.S. until Korean leadership is normalized, according to experts on Korean Peninsula affairs in the U.S.
Klingner, a senior researcher at the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation, stated during a discussion hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) that Acting President and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo could meet Trump if they attend multilateral meetings together. However, he believed it unlikely for Trump to visit Korea or vice versa (Han visiting the U.S.).
Klingner highlighted acting President Yoon Suk-yeol, who, despite being impeached and suspended, strengthened the Korea-U.S. alliance and approached Japan, leading to a Korea-U.S.-Japan security cooperation system. He anticipated significant changes in Korea’s security policy if an early presidential election results in a regime change.
He speculated that the Democratic Party of Korea might adopt a more conciliatory approach towards North Korea and China while being more nationalistic towards Japan. Klingner added that Korea’s progressive camp has tended to be cooler towards the alliance with the U.S., often criticizing the U.S. more than North Korea for heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula, which may not align with the Trump administration’s perspectives.
Klingner also noted that the U.S. views China as an existential threat both domestically and in the Indo-Pacific region. He warned that the U.S. would desire substantially more from its allies to counter China, and relationships could become strained if South Korea or Japan do not comply.
Furthermore, he suggested that if Trump engages in North Korea dialogue, South Korea’s Democratic Party would welcome it. Klingner referenced Trump’s recent nominations of Alex Wong and Richard Grenell, indicating a potential U.S. move to reach out to North Korea, which the Democratic Party would likely favor.
Considering potential provocations from North Korea during South Korea’s political turmoil, Klingner downplayed the likelihood of major provocations, noting historical restraint during the 1980 Gwangju Uprising. He speculated that North Korea might prefer to observe internal collapse in South Korea rather than intervene.
Victor Cha, the CSIS Korean Chair, suggested that regardless of the situation in South Korea, North Korea might feel the need to conduct demonstrative provocations against the new U.S. administration post-Trump inauguration.