In the German federal parliamentary election held on the 23rd (local time), the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) alliance is predicted to significantly outpace Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) to become the largest party. According to the exit poll results released by the public broadcaster ARD at 6 PM, the CDU/CSU alliance is expected to receive 29.0% of the vote, well ahead of AfD’s 19.5% and SPD’s 16.0%.
The Green Party is projected to gain 13.5%, and The Left is expected to secure 8.5%. The pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) are uncertain to enter parliament with expected vote shares of 4.9% and 4.7%, respectively. Under election laws, a party must exceed 5% of the national vote or win at least three seats in constituencies to gain seats in parliament.
Another exit poll by the secondary public broadcaster ZDF predicts the CDU/CSU at 28.5%, AfD at 20.0%, and SPD at 16.5%. ARD forecasts that, as of 7 PM, the CDU/CSU will take 210 out of a total of 630 seats, while AfD will have 145, SPD 118, the Greens 94, and The Left 62. The exact distribution of seats will depend on whether the FDP and BSW surpass the threshold to enter parliament, potentially reducing the seats available to other parties.
Once the seat distribution is confirmed, the CDU/CSU is expected to begin forming a coalition government. If successful, Friedrich Merz, the CDU leader, is expected to assume the chancellorship. Upon the release of the exit polls, Merz declared victory, acknowledging the significant responsibility ahead and emphasizing the urgency in coalition negotiations. The CDU/CSU has maintained a lead with around 30% support since the collapse of the so-called “traffic light” coalition last November.
If the CDU/CSU leads the coalition, it will mark the return of a conservative government three years after CDU member Angela Merkel stepped down as Chancellor in December 2021. Chancellor Scholz acknowledged the poor election results and his responsibility for them.
The AfD, which has seen rapid growth over the past few years, is projected to nearly double its previous election result of 10.4% and become the second-largest party. Co-leader Alice Weidel called the exit poll a “historic victory” and indicated openness to coalition talks with the CDU, though other German parties refuse to cooperate with the AfD, accusing it of undermining democracy.