Trump’s Return and North Korea’s Involvement Shift Dynamics… Pressure on Ukraine to ‘Give Up Some Territory and Stop Here’
The situation regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which began almost 1,000 days ago, is witnessing a shift in sentiment in Europe, which had been skeptical about ending the war through negotiations.
With former U.S. President Donald Trump, known for his skepticism about supporting Ukraine, poised to take office next year and North Korean troops recently joining the fray, there’s a growing consensus that it would be better to end the war quickly before Russia secures a bigger victory.
As the atmosphere among European allies, initially committed to supporting Ukraine towards victory, shifts rapidly, these countries are increasingly pressuring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to sit down at the negotiation table with Russia.
According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and Bloomberg, support for negotiating an end to the war has grown among European countries, aligning with Trump’s stance. Although most European countries officially maintain their commitment to supporting Ukraine, there’s internal advocacy for Ukraine to concede some territory in exchange for ending the war now.
This change arose from concerns that Trump may cut off U.S. support for Ukraine once back in office. Europe fears it won’t be able to fill the gap left by diminished U.S. military and financial aid to Ukraine.
Leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni have officially raised these concerns at a summit in Budapest, Hungary.
With North Korean troops assisting Russia, public opinion in Europe is increasingly leaning towards halting the war now, according to Bloomberg.
While Eastern European countries like Poland and the Baltic states, which border Russia or Ukraine, remain firm in supporting Ukraine, elsewhere in Europe, there’s growing skepticism about Ukraine’s ability to reclaim all its occupied territories and win the war.
Some European diplomats told the WSJ that the most hopeful scenario is for Ukraine to maintain its sovereignty, even if it means ceding some territory to Russia, thus preventing a complete Russian victory.
Analysts suggest that to achieve this goal, it’s advantageous to conclude the war as quickly as possible.
In the meantime, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time in two years, indicating potential openings for Europe-Russia communication. Despite disagreements aired during the call, Ukraine has expressed concerns that such contacts could reduce Putin’s isolation on the international stage.
There’s also an expectation that the G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro may see concrete pressure on Ukraine to begin ceasefire negotiations with Russia. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan plans to propose maintaining the current frontlines to end the conflict, including postponing Ukraine’s NATO membership and establishing a demilitarized zone in occupied areas.
However, Putin’s willingness to cooperate with such proposals remains uncertain. The growing calls for negotiations from Europe could be perceived as Russia having the upper hand, possibly incentivizing Putin to continue the war.
Meanwhile, Russia escalates its attacks on Ukraine’s energy facilities ahead of winter. Putin has reiterated Russia’s readiness to negotiate if “new territorial realities” and Russia’s security interests are considered.
Should negotiations deteriorate, Trump’s potential “unexpected actions” in response are causing unease in Europe, according to WSJ. Concerns linger over how much Trump might pressure Ukraine to concede in peace talks and how he’ll acknowledge Ukraine’s sovereignty.
One significant development is the U.S. potentially allowing Ukraine to use American-provided long-range missiles to strike targets within Russia in response to North Korean involvement.
The New York Times reported on President Joe Biden’s decision to permit Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles, which have a range of about 300 km, for attacks on Russian targets.