Imports and Employment Short-Term Index at 65.1 – Recession Signal Below 12-Month Decline
In Surfside, Florida, a pedestrian passes by an advertisement for a vacant office space for rent. Despite the U.S. stock market continuously hitting record highs, consumer confidence regarding the economy is plummeting.
According to reports by AP and others on the 27th, American consumer sentiment took a sharp downturn in January, with the Consumer Confidence Index dropping to 84.5. This marks the lowest point since May 2014, falling by 9.7 points from the previous month, as per the Conference Board, a non-profit that tracks these metrics.
The short-term expectations index for the next six months concerning imports and employment also dropped by 9.5 points to 65.1, significantly below the recessionary threshold of 80. This index has remained under 80 for 12 consecutive months. Consumers’ current assessment of the economic situation fell by 9.9 points to 113.7.
Government estimates suggest that, despite the U.S. economy growing at its fastest pace in two years during the third quarter of 2025, consumers feel otherwise. Dana Peterson, the chief economic analyst at the Conference Board, noted that the collapse of the Confidence Index in January reflects growing concerns about both the present and future, with all five components of the index deteriorating to pull the overall figure below 2014 levels.
Consumer responses indicate significant concerns over rising prices for oil and groceries and conflicts arising from the Trump administration’s tariff and trade policies. The proportion who said “jobs are plentiful” declined from 27.5% in the previous month to 23.9%, while those stating “jobs are hard to get” increased from 19.1% to 20.8%.
Heather Long, chief economic analyst at Credit Union, points out that the dramatic drop in the Consumer Confidence Index is a direct result of stagnation in hiring, with 2025 seeing the weakest job growth outside of a recession, harshly impacting the middle class. Throughout 2025, only 584,000 new jobs were created, a third of the over 2 million added in 2024.
Economic analysts describe the current U.S. labor market as in a “low employment, low layoff” phase, with companies neither actively hiring nor engaging in mass layoffs, attributing this stalemate to uncertainty from the Trump administration’s tariff and trade policies, and pressure on the Federal Reserve, which fosters indecision in corporate hiring and investment.