Co-investigation by The Hill and Emerson College
Wisconsin at a tie… narrowing the gap with Biden, According to The Hill and Emerson College, on the 25th (local time), the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, slightly leads over former President Donald Trump, who is a potential Republican candidate for the upcoming November election, in the poll results that will influence the outcome of the November election. It is noted that the younger generation shifting their support to Vice President Harris is narrowing the gap with former President Trump.
According to a survey conducted on the 22nd to 23rd in 5 battleground states with 800-850 respondents each, former President Trump showed an advantage over Vice President Harris in 4 states excluding Wisconsin (margin of error ±3.3-3.4%). Former President Trump led in Arizona by 49% to 44%, and within the margin of error in Georgia (48% to 46%), Michigan (46% to 45%), and Pennsylvania (48% to 46%). Both sides recorded a tie with a 47% support rate in Wisconsin. Except for Arizona, the gaps were within the margin of error.
After President Joe Biden expressed his intention to resign as a presidential candidate on the 21st, the Democratic Party has been narrowing the support gap with former President Trump. Vice President Harris, who reserved the Democratic presidential candidacy, recorded a 5% point higher support rate in Georgia, 4% in Arizona and Wisconsin each, and 3% in Michigan and Pennsylvania compared to President Biden.
Spencer Kimball, the head of the Emerson College poll, evaluated that “the younger generation is shifting their support to Vice President Harris,” and “Vice President Harris has partially regained support for the Democratic presidential candidate since the end of June due to the debate aftermath.”
The opinion that Vice President Harris should be formally nominated as the Democratic presidential candidate also reached around 80%. In Arizona, around 85% of respondents answered that Vice President Harris should be the presidential candidate, and the same response was a strong majority in Georgia (82%), Michigan (77%), Pennsylvania (76%), and Wisconsin (80%).
In a national poll, Vice President Harris is also narrowing the gap with former President Trump. According to the aggregated national poll results by The Hill as of the afternoon of the 24th, former President Trump led with a 2% point difference over Vice President Harris, with a 48% support rate compared to her 46%. In polls conducted before President Biden’s resignation, former President Trump led by a 4% point difference with a 47% support rate against President Biden’s 43%.
Earlier, there were also poll results showing Vice President Harris leading over former President Trump. According to a survey by Reuters and Ipsos on the 23rd, Vice President Harris recorded a 44% support rate, slightly ahead of former President Trump (42%) within the margin of error.