On the 4th, the Israeli Prime Minister will have a meeting, followed by a meeting with the King of Jordan on the 11th, where they are expected to discuss the possibility of relocating Palestinian refugees to Arab countries. During this time, an Israeli airstrike in the West Bank resulted in the death of 25 civilians.
In related developments, President Donald Trump plans to hold consecutive meetings at the White House in Washington with the Israeli Prime Minister and the King of Jordan. These meetings are part of efforts to resolve the complex Middle Eastern situation related to the ‘second ceasefire’ negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian armed group Hamas. However, significant disagreements among the concerned countries and neighboring nations are expected to make reaching an agreement challenging.
On the 2nd, Reuters and Israel’s Times of Israel reported that President Trump, while returning to the White House from his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, mentioned to reporters at Joint Base Andrews that discussions on Middle Eastern matters with various countries, including Israel, were progressing. Although he did not disclose specific details, his remarks are interpreted as being related to upcoming talks with Middle Eastern leaders.
President Trump is scheduled to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the 4th, marking his first meeting with a foreign leader since his inauguration. On the 11th, he plans to discuss Palestinian refugee relocation issues with King Abdullah II of Jordan. Previously, Israel and Hamas had agreed to begin second-stage ceasefire negotiations, which would include the release of hostages, on the 3rd, following a 16-day ceasefire. The outcome of President Trump’s meetings with Middle Eastern leaders is expected to have a significant impact on the future ceasefire negotiations.
The Guardian explained that the meetings are intended for the U.S. and Israel to coordinate a joint stance before the (second ceasefire) negotiations and stated that post-war plans, such as who will govern Gaza, are expected to be significant issues.
One of the issues complicating the second-ceasefire negotiations since the start of the Trump administration is Trump’s push for the relocation of Palestinian refugees, displaced by the Gaza conflict, to nearby Arab countries like Egypt and Jordan—a proposal strongly opposed by surrounding nations, which have faced political instability and security threats due to the influx of Palestinian refugees since Israel’s founding in 1948. Both King Abdullah II and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi publicly stated their refusal to accept refugees on the 30th of the previous month. The Guardian noted that the second-phase ceasefire negotiations have already been complicated by Trump’s repeated demands for Egypt and Jordan to absorb 1.5 million residents of the Gaza Strip.
Opposition from Israel’s far-right factions, which oppose the ceasefire and demand a resumption of war with Hamas, is another hurdle. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, a far-right hardliner, expressed his intention to resign before the 1st-stage ceasefire took effect. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, from another far-right party, also threatened to leave the coalition unless the war resumed after the 1st-stage ceasefire deadline. If Finance Minister Smotrich resigns, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s political downfall may be imminent. The Financial Times reported that “Prime Minister Netanyahu will soon need to decide whether he is willing to finalize this deal (negotiation).”
Another destabilizing factor in the Middle Eastern situation is the increase in civilian casualties following Israeli attacks on the West Bank after the first Gaza war ceasefire took effect. According to Palestinian authorities, as reported by state-run Wafa News Agency and others, Israeli military operations targeting the Jenin refugee camp in the West Bank have resulted in at least 25 Palestinian deaths over two weeks, including a 2-year-old girl. The Israeli military claims to have killed 50 armed combatants and arrested over 100 individuals.