Reports suggest that as Syrian rebels continue their advance by capturing the central strategic city of Hama, the possibility of the Bashar al-Assad regime’s collapse is becoming more tangible. According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the 5th (local time), experts point out that given the momentum of the Syrian rebels, the Assad regime’s survival is entering a precarious phase.
Darin Khalifa, a senior advisor at the conflict-focused think tank International Crisis Group (ICG), acknowledged the potential for the Assad regime’s collapse, stating that “there is a real possibility at present.” He explained that if the rebels continue advancing towards Homs at this pace and capture parts of it, the collapse of the Assad regime must be seriously considered.
On this day, Syrian opposition forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), captured Hama, leaving only Homs as a major city along the route to the Syrian capital, Damascus. Hama, Syria’s fourth-largest city with a population of about 1 million, is positioned along the corridor from Aleppo, recently recaptured by the rebels, to the capital, Damascus.
This is the first time since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011 that Hama, previously under Assad’s control, has fallen into rebel hands. The influence of the Assad regime, which governs the southern regions of Syria, has been increasingly diminishing in recent times.
This situation is not unrelated to the instability faced by Russia and Iran, who have been backing the Assad regime militarily and economically despite international sanctions, due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Iran’s conflict with Israel, respectively.
The possibility of the Assad regime’s collapse brings mixed feelings among Syrians, with hope for the fall of the dictatorship that has committed atrocities, including the use of chemical weapons against its own people, but also concerns over the Islamic extremist tendencies of the Syrian rebels.
HTS, previously linked to the international terrorist organization Al-Qaeda, is designated as a terrorist group by the U.S. government. The Telegraph highlighted the rapid change in the situation, noting that with the fall of Hama into rebel hands, the path to Homs is now open.
Homs is the third-largest city in Syria, following Damascus and Aleppo, and is a stronghold in the south where the uprising started at the beginning of the Syrian civil war. Thousands died in a crackdown by the Assad regime at the time.
When rebels seized Aleppo last week, the Assad regime predicted that it would be very difficult for the rebels to capture Hama, expecting government forces to regroup and halt the advance before then. However, the rebels surprisingly took Hama with little resistance, according to the Telegraph.
With the Assad regime in crisis due to the rebel counteroffensive, Russia and Iran stepped in to provide support. Russian fighter jets launched airstrikes on rebel-held areas, and the Iranian foreign minister visited Damascus to meet directly with President Assad, promising support from the Iranian government.
However, given their domestic focus on the Ukraine war (for Russia), the Gaza war, and the Israel-Lebanon conflict (for Iran), their support for Syria may be limited, as sending military assets to Syria could leave other conflict zones at risk.
Analyses also highlight differences in weaponry and troop morale between the rebels and government forces. The Telegraph noted that HTS possesses officers, special forces, night units, and drone units, and even produces their own rockets on a large scale. In contrast, the morale among government troops is reportedly low, partly because they are not being properly paid.
Nonetheless, the rapid advance of the rebels, including their swift capture of Hama, has left their supply lines vulnerable, raising questions about their ability to effectively maintain and govern newly occupied territories, including Aleppo, according to the WSJ.