Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel. Reuters
Israel, which has threatened ‘retaliatory’ action in response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack, reportedly conveyed to the US government its intention to strike military facilities instead of nuclear or oil facilities.
On the 14th (local time), The Washington Post reported, citing multiple officials familiar with the matter, that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed this intention in a phone call with US President Joe Biden on the 9th. The officials indicated that the likely timing for the attack is before the upcoming US presidential election on the 5th of next month.
The retaliation for Iran’s ballistic missile attack will be carried out in a limited manner.
In order to prevent the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, the US has pressured Israel not to strike Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities. With less than a month left until the US presidential election, if Israel were to attack Iran’s oil facilities, global energy prices could surge, and a strike on nuclear infrastructure could lead to all-out warfare.
An official stated that Israel will adjust the level of retaliation to avoid the perception of ‘political interference’ in the US presidential election. Prime Minister Netanyahu is keenly aware that Israel’s attack level could impact the course of the US election.
Amid this situation, the US government reportedly interpreted Israel’s indication of striking military facilities as a display of restraint.
This influenced the decision for the US to deploy THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) to Israel for the first time since the Gulf War. The US Department of Defense announced the deployment of THAAD in Israel and the dispatch of 100 US troops to operate it for “ironclad defense” against possible threats. It was reported that after the phone call between President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu, the decision to deploy THAAD was confirmed.
A former senior official of the Israeli Ministry of Defense stated, “The US is sending THAAD and promising the necessary weapons support to end Hezbollah, signaling that they can deal with Iran later.”
However, it is unclear whether Prime Minister Netanyahu will keep his word. In the past, Netanyahu agreed to a three-week ceasefire proposed by the US and others at the start of the invasion of Lebanon, but soon changed his stance and thwarted it by targeting Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. The sudden ceasefire proposal presented by the US and France at the UN General Assembly greatly embarrassed them, and US government officials reportedly expressed anger at Israel’s strong objection to ‘stabbing in the back’ due to domestic extreme right-wing pressures.
Extreme right-wing opinions within Israel remain a variable in the context of the Iranian attack. The far-right forces within the government are pressuring Netanyahu for a strong attack, while former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett argues that now, when Hezbollah’s power is dwindling, is the time to strike Iranian nuclear facilities.
Gail Tilsir, a political scientist at Hebrew University of Jerusalem, pointed out, “The Israeli military leadership does not want escalation, but Netanyahu is different,” and warned that Netanyahu is feeling anxious about the election of reformist-minded President Ebrahim Raisi in Iran, who is willing to resume Western and nuclear agreements, and is cautious about the prospect of Vice President Kamala Harris becoming the next US president. She said, “Now is the time to prevent the improvement of relations between Iran and the West.”