‘Lead Negotiator’ Haniye Assassinated… Possibility of Renewed Escalation of Conflict and Tension

Hamas negotiator assassinated
Qatar questions, “Can mediation succeed if negotiating counterpart is assassinated”,

Mourners commemorating Hamas representative Haniyeh. [AP],
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, ‘Hamas’s top leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated on the 31st in Tehran, the capital of Iran, casting a shadow over the ceasefire negotiations for the Gaza conflict.’,
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, ‘The ceasefire negotiations are seen as effectively over due to Haniyeh’s past role. He mainly resided in Qatar and had been responsible for negotiating between Israel and Hamas in various conflicts.’,
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, ‘Haniyeh was also involved in the ceasefire negotiations mediated by Egypt after the “11-day War” between Hamas and Israel in 2021. If Israel was behind the assassination, it would mean assassinating the representative of the negotiating party for the ceasefire.’,
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, ‘Qatar, a mediation country, expressed regret that the ceasefire negotiations could be jeopardized by the assassination of Haniyeh. Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani pointed out on X (Old Twitter) that “how could mediation succeed if one side assassinates the negotiating partner” and expressed concerns that the ceasefire negotiations could be in jeopardy due to Haniyeh’s assassination.’,
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, ‘He also stated, “Regarding the pattern of the Gaza conflict, there may be no dramatic changes” and “It is clear that the prospect of an urgent ceasefire is more distant than ever.”‘,
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, ‘Despite repeated failures over the past 10 months, recent ceasefire negotiations were showing signs of vitality. Just until the 28th, senior officials from the United States, Israel, Egypt, and Qatar were discussing a Gaza conflict ceasefire proposal in Rome, Italy.’,
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, ‘The negotiations were stuck and then made progress on a few key points, thanks to the efforts of the mediating countries. Israel, being suggested as the perpetrator of the assassination operation, is also facing criticism for not having an intention to end the war through negotiations from the start.’,
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, ‘The Egyptian Foreign Ministry stated in a statement on that day, “The ceasefire negotiations are complicating the situation in the absence of progress” and criticized that “Israel shows no political will to ease military tensions.”‘,
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, ‘With Haniyeh’s sudden assassination, there is a high possibility that a hardline stance may dominate within Hamas. Hamas pointed fingers at Israel, the ceasefire counterpart, as the perpetrator of the assassination, vowing retaliation.’,
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, ‘In a statement released on the day, Hamas stated, “Our leader Haniyeh was martyred in Tehran by the Zionists’ attack,” and Muza Abu Marzook, a senior Hamas political figure, strongly criticized, saying, “We will not overlook their (Israel’s) actions.”‘,
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, ‘Especially considering that the assassination took place in the Iranian capital Tehran, it is likely that this will become even more negative element in the ceasefire negotiations. As Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei instructed ‘mandatory severe retaliation’ for Haniyeh’s assassination, Iran can disrupt the negotiation table, shift the axis of resistance, and also cannot exclude the possibility of putting simultaneous military pressure on Israel.’,
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, ‘Al Jazeera warned, “With the pragmatic Haniyeh’s death, the hardliners in Hamas are expected to make key decisions,” and expressed concerns that “it seems very difficult for the ceasefire negotiations to gain momentum.”‘,
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, ‘Within the Israeli public, there are speculations that with the well-known Hamas assassination of Haniyeh, one of Israel’s main objectives in the war has been achieved, there may be increased domestic pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to achieve a final peace.’,
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, ‘Netanyahu has maintained the stance of resuming combat until objectives such as Hamas removal, hostage release, and the end of threats from Gaza are achieved, even in the event of a ceasefire.’,
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, ‘Peter Ricketts, former British National Security Adviser, stated on BBC, “In terms of dealing a major blow to the Hamas leadership, Israel now has political room to end the Gaza operation,” while also pointing out that “the likelihood of Hamas agreeing to a ceasefire is low, so the Middle East remains dangerous.”‘,
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