[솔트레이크·베드민스터=AP/뉴시스] Joe Biden (left), the President of the United States, and former President Donald Trump are likely to have a rematch in the U.S. presidential election on November 5th this year. The photo shows President Biden speaking in Salt Lake City on August 10th last year and former President Trump speaking in Bedminster on June 13th last year. January 3, 2024.
In the latest opinion poll by The New York Times on the U.S. presidential election, it was revealed that Donald Trump, the Republican former President, leads current President Joe Biden, a Democrat, in support in five out of the six swing states that play a decisive role in determining the election winner.
On the 13th, The New York Times introduced the results of a regular survey conducted jointly by Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer. The analysis included the ongoing trend of young and Black, Hispanic voters shifting away from President Biden despite the improvement in objective indicators.
The dissatisfaction among these voter groups on economic and immigration issues has not been properly addressed, leading to their continued disapproval. According to the survey of 4,097 residents who have already registered to vote in the six swing states, Trump gained more support than Biden in Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, with Biden leading only in Wisconsin.
When focusing on respondents with strong intentions to vote, Trump also outperformed Biden in the five swing states. However, Biden maintained a lead only in Michigan, and the gap between Trump and Biden narrowed compared to the overall registered voter pool. Biden won all six swing states in the 2020 election, and dominating each swing state with electoral votes is a key feature of the U.S. presidential election.
Considering that the situation of securing electoral votes in states other than the 6 swing states remains the same as four years ago, The New York Times stated that if Biden wins just Pennsylvania (19 votes), Michigan (10 votes), and Wisconsin (10 votes) among the six swing states, he will surpass 270 electoral votes and defeat Trump.
The Times noted that the survey, which is limited to the six swing states, is the first since November last year and that inflation has dropped sharply over the past six months, with a 25% increase in stock prices. Despite these improvements and Biden’s significant fundraising advantage over Trump, Biden’s campaign headquarters has intensified its advertising campaigns in the swing states.
Nevertheless, The Times mentioned that this survey, limited to the swing states, does not indicate any signs of Biden being helped by the various favorable conditions and breaking Trump’s momentum. The overall dissatisfaction of voters remains unchanged, pulling down support for President Biden due to rising living costs, influx of illegal immigrants, Israel’s Gaza conflict, and desire for change.
When looking at the nationwide survey and swing state survey together, Biden has been trailing behind in the average of both surveys since briefly rebounding after his state of the union address in early March. This survey was conducted from April 28th to May 9th.