Donald Trump, former president of the United States (left), and Vice President Kamala Harris. In the November presidential election, a poll result released on the 14th showed that Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party’s candidate for vice president, leads Donald Trump, the Republican candidate and former president, in five out of the seven key battleground states that could determine the outcome. Even in states where Trump had a clear lead before Joe Biden resigned as the Democratic Party’s candidate last month, Harris’ support has caught up with Trump’s. The U.S. election has transitioned from a scenario where Trump was leading to a close race.
According to the Cook Political Report, an American election analysis organization, a poll conducted from July 26 to August 2 among 2,867 voters in seven battleground states revealed that Harris is slightly ahead of Trump in five states, including North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Georgia was tied, and only in Nevada did Trump lead Harris.
Harris’ progress is attributed to the consolidation of support from Democratic voters who saw the possibility of defeat after Biden’s resignation and considered her as a viable option. The active campaigning by Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota whom Harris named as her running mate on the 6th, also contributed to this trend. The percentage of voters who had voted for Biden in 2020 and now support Democratic candidates increased from 85% to 91%, showing a stronger consolidation of support after Harris entered the race.
Harris leads Trump by 3 percentage points in Michigan and Wisconsin, and by 1 point in Pennsylvania, all part of the Rust Belt region. Although these states contribute only 44 electoral votes out of 538, both Trump and Biden narrowly won these pivotal states in the 2016 and 2020 elections. In addition, in Arizona, Harris leads Trump by 2 points, while trailing by 3 points in Nevada. The Cook Political Report stated that Harris narrowed the gap by 6 points compared to the May survey results, showing progress in the Sun Belt region as well. The analysis highlighted Trump’s strength on immigration and border security issues, while noting Harris’ advantage on abortion rights.
The margin of error for this poll was ±1.85%. While Harris’ lead generally fell within the margin of error, given that in the May survey when Biden was the Democratic candidate, Trump led in six of the seven battleground states and Wisconsin was tied, this turnaround is considered significant. Nationally, Harris leads Trump by a slight margin, with 48% to 47%.
(Source: Chosun Ilbo)