**Headline**: Opposition to Impeachment Shows Strong Support Among Those Over 70, Tie in Daegu-Gyeongbuk (TK)
“Issues Surrounding Lee Jae-myung’s Rule Stir Conservative Base”
On the first weekend of 2025, a large-scale rally took place in Gwanghwamun, Seoul, both for and against the impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol. Public opinion against impeachment and a rebound in support for the ruling party indicate a consolidation of conservative forces. Challenges like the impeachment of Acting President and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, confusion over treason charges, and the controversy surrounding the legality of arrest warrants have intensified political division.
Recent trends mirror the “learning effect” from President Park Geun-hye’s 2016 impeachment. Concerns over ongoing impeachment efforts by the opposition have fueled resistance among conservatives, leading to an increase in anti-impeachment sentiment and support for the ruling party.
A Gallup Korea survey conducted from the 7th to the 9th with 1,004 voters showed 64% support for President Yoon’s impeachment, a drop of 11 percentage points from the previous month’s figure, while opposition rose to 32%. Changing attitudes among centrists and some conservatives disappointed with the opposition’s efforts contributed to the shift.
Regionally, Seoul and the Daegu-Gyeongbuk area saw noticeable changes. Support for impeachment in Seoul fell from 81% to 59%, and in TK it dropped from 62% to 47%, leveling out with opposition. By age, support among those in their 20s to 50s decreased from over 80% to the 70% range, while those in their 60s showed a split, and those over 70 showed stronger opposition.
A comparison to Park’s impeachment reveals significant differences. Just before the impeachment vote in December 2016, support stood at 81% compared to 14% opposition, remaining stable into March the following year. In contrast, sentiment towards President Yoon shifted significantly within a month.
Conservative commentator Choi Chang-ryul highlights “increasing conservative unrest fueled by both apprehension towards Lee Jae-myung and President Yoon’s legal debates.”
The survey also showed the People Power Party’s support at 34%, its highest since July 2024, while the Democratic Party fell 12 percentage points to 36%. The gap between the parties has narrowed to a statistical tie, reversing gains by the Democrats post-impeachment motion.
The People Power Party’s support rose in its stronghold demographics, with support by those over 70 increasing from 51% to 56%, and among conservatives from 63% to 73%. In TK, support rose from 33% to 52%.
The opposition’s aggressive impeachment attempts have inadvertently strengthened conservative unity, according to Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University. The absence of a clear People Power Party presidential candidate is evident; 33% of respondents said they had no preference or declined to answer, posing potential for shifts among undecided voters. Shin anticipates support might coalesce around viable early election candidates.
The survey was conducted via random selection of mobile phone numbers provided by the three mobile carriers, with a 16.3% response rate and a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points, at a 95% confidence level. Details are available on the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.