A Chinese private commercial satellite analysis company has been revealing detailed information about the U.S. military’s deployment in the Middle East, leading to speculation that the Chinese government may be employing a new strategic tactic to pressure the U.S. By using a private company, China might be attempting to disrupt U.S. military operations and indirectly support Iran through a sophisticated gray zone strategy.
According to the South China Morning Post (SCMP) on February 25th, MizarVision, a Chinese company that has consistently posted about U.S. military activities on social media over the past two years, has recently increased the frequency and detail of its posts. The company provides specific details like the types and quantities of fighter jets and air defense/missile defense systems in bases across Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Greece, and Qatar.
Recent information includes the entry of the U.S. Navy’s latest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, into the Souda Bay base on Crete, Greece, on the 25th. On the 24th, MizarVision noted reductions in tanker and transport aircraft numbers at Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base, while air defense and missile systems remained deployed. They also reported on February 22nd that a fleet of U.S. C-17 transport planes was crossing the Atlantic. Additionally, they have been closely monitoring Diego Garcia, a key U.S. Air Force base in the Indian Ocean, providing detailed reports on its status. This approach effectively broadcasts real-time updates on U.S. military operations and logistics hubs in the Middle East.
SCMP pointed out that it is rare for a Chinese private company to disclose such sensitive information. The timing aligns with China’s calls for U.S.-Iran tension reduction. Dennis Wilder, former CIA China analyst, questioned the purpose behind China permitting such activities by a private company and suggested it might be an attempt to showcase China’s intelligence capabilities, following past intelligence oversights.
There are suspicions that the Chinese government is leveraging private companies to display their intelligence capabilities while undermining the strategic ambiguity that the U.S. military intended. This move is seen as part of China’s gray zone strategy, which involves low-intensity provocations and pressure to prompt a reaction from the opponent. By providing Iran with high-quality military information for free, China could be strengthening anti-U.S. alliances in the Middle East and enhancing its presence in the region.
Meanwhile, experts within China argue that such information disclosures by private companies are beneficial and within legal boundaries. Retired People’s Liberation Army colonel Yue Gang stated that MizarVision’s ability to collect and analyze information complements China’s national intelligence capabilities and contributes to its development as an intelligence powerhouse. Song Zhongping, a former People’s Liberation Army instructor and military commentator, praised these activities for showcasing and promoting China’s information capabilities.