[the300] NBS Opinion Poll… Among People Power Party candidates, Hong Joon-pyo has the smallest gap with Lee Jae-myung in a three-way hypothetical match-up, A poll showing that in terms of suitability for the next president, Lee Jae-myung, a preliminary candidate for the Democratic Party, received 41% support, while Hong Joon-pyo and Kim Moon-soo, preliminary candidates for the People Power Party, each received 10%, was released on the 24th.
According to a National Barometer Survey (NBS) conducted by Embrain Public, K-stat Research, Korea Research, and Hankook Research from the 21st to the 23rd with 1,005 men and women aged 18 or older, Lee Jae-myung was considered the most suitable candidate for the next president with a response rate of 41%, followed by Hong Joon-pyo and Kim Moon-soo (10%), Han Dong-hoon, People Power Party preliminary candidate (8%), Ahn Cheol-soo, People Power Party preliminary candidate, and Lee Jun-seok, Reform New Party candidate (3%).
Lee Jae-myung’s suitability rating as the next president rose 2 percentage points (p) from last week, while the suitability rates for Hong Joon-pyo and Kim Moon-soo also rose by 2%p each.
Among People Power Party supporters, Kim Moon-soo had a 28% response rate, followed by Hong Joon-pyo at 24%, and Han Dong-hoon. Among Democratic Party supporters, Lee Jae-myung was overwhelming at 87%.
In terms of likability for the next presidential candidates, Lee Jae-myung received the highest “favorable” response rate at 43%, followed by Hong Joon-pyo and Kim Moon-soo at 25%, Han Dong-hoon at 22%, and Lee Jun-seok at 16%.
As for suitability for the People Power Party presidential candidate, Hong Joon-pyo received the highest support with 14%, followed by Han Dong-hoon (13%), Kim Moon-soo (11%), and Ahn Cheol-soo (8%).
Among People Power Party supporters, Kim Moon-soo was favored by 28%, Hong Joon-pyo by 26%, and Han Dong-hoon by 22%. Among conservatives, Kim Moon-soo ranked highest (26%), while among moderates, Hong Joon-pyo (14%) was slightly ahead of Han Dong-hoon and Ahn Cheol-soo (12%).
For the Democratic Party presidential candidate, Lee Jae-myung received the highest suitability rating at 44%, followed by Kim Dong-yeon, Democratic Party preliminary candidate (10%), and Kim Kyung-soo, Democratic Party preliminary candidate (3%).
Among Democratic Party supporters, Lee Jae-myung received 93%, Kim Dong-yeon 1%, and Kim Kyung-soo 1%. In both progressive and moderate groups, Lee Jae-myung was the most preferred at 81% and 53%, respectively.
In a hypothetical three-way competition in the 21st presidential election, Hong Joon-pyo from the People Power Party showed the smallest gap against Lee Jae-myung.
In a three-way match-up scenario with Lee Jae-myung, Hong Joon-pyo, and Lee Jun-seok, the polling indicated Lee Jae-myung at 45%, Hong Joon-pyo at 26%, and Lee Jun-seok at 7%, with a gap of 19%p between Lee and Hong, outside the margin of error.
In a three-way scenario with Lee Jae-myung, Kim Moon-soo, and Lee Jun-seok, Lee Jae-myung was at 45%, Kim Moon-soo at 25%, and Lee Jun-seok at 9%, with a gap of 20%p between Lee and Kim, outside the margin of error.
In a hypothetical match-up featuring Lee Jae-myung, Han Dong-hoon, and Lee Jun-seok, Lee Jae-myung led at 45%, with Han Dong-hoon at 21% and Lee Jun-seok at 8%, creating a margin of 24%p between Lee and Han, outside the margin of error.
In another potential scenario with Lee Jae-myung, Ahn Cheol-soo, and Lee Jun-seok, Lee Jae-myung held 46%, Ahn Cheol-soo accumulated 17%, and Lee Jun-seok garnered 7%, amounting to a 29%p gap, outside the error range.
The belief that the administration needs to change in the next presidential election was 50%, while 39% believed the administration should be re-established.
Party preferences showed 38% for the Democratic Party and 35% for the People Power Party, with the National Innovation Party at 5%, and the Reform New Party at 2%. Compared to the previous week, the Democratic Party’s support increased by 1%p, while the People Power Party went up by 3%p.
The NBS survey was conducted through phone interviews using randomly generated mobile numbers (100%), with a margin of error of ±3.1%p at a 95% confidence level. The response rate was 20.0%, with 1,005 responses out of 5,027 calls. More details can be found on the website of the National Election Commission’s Opinion Poll Review Committee.