Last year, one out of five municipalities across the nation recorded fewer than 100 births. With the acceleration of population concentration in the metropolitan area, the low birth rate phenomenon in rural areas is deepening, leading to a faster extinction rate in these regions.
According to the National Statistical Office’s portal (KOSIS) data on the 3rd, 52 out of 264 local governments (cities, counties, districts) under the jurisdiction of 17 metropolitan cities and provinces had birth numbers of 100 or less last year. In metropolitan areas like Seoul, Gyeonggi, Gwangju, Daejeon, Ulsan, Sejong, and Jeju, there were no places with birth numbers under 100. Similarly, in Busan, Daegu, and Incheon, only one place each recorded births of 100 or fewer.
Conversely, many regions outside the metropolitan area or major cities had municipalities with fewer than 100 births: Gangwon (8), Chungbuk (5), Chungnam (4), Jeonbuk (6), Jeonnam (8), Gyeongbuk (8), and Gyeongnam (9). The National Statistical Office counts births in units of 100, meaning 100 births implies between 50 to 149 births in that year. In Gyeongbuk’s Yeongyang-gun and Ulleung-gun, the number of births did not even reach 50, thus recorded as zero in data.
Municipalities with fewer than 100 births are rapidly increasing. In 2019, there were only 27 such municipalities, half of the current number.
Natural population decline, where deaths exceed births, is also prominent in rural areas. Last year, Gyeongsangbuk-do saw the highest natural population decrease (-14,900), with 13,000 births and 25,300 deaths. Gyeongsangnam-do had the second-largest drop (13,800). Other areas like Jeonnam, Jeonbuk, Chungnam, and Gangwon also experienced significant population declines.
While the low birth rate in rural areas intensifies, population concentration in metropolitan areas accelerates this trend. According to domestic population statistics, Gyeonggi-do had the highest net migration last year, with 64,000 more moving in than out. Incheon, another metropolitan area, had a net inflow of 26,000. Meanwhile, regions like Gangwon, Gyeongnam, Gyeongbuk, Jeonnam, Jeonbuk, and Gangwon saw net outflows.
In the last five years, the population naturally declined by approximately 450,000 people. Despite a rebound in the total fertility rate last year after nine years, the ongoing situation where deaths exceed births continues to worsen the population decline. In 2022, the population naturally decreased by 120,000, with 238,000 births and 358,000 deaths. The population first naturally decreased by 33,000 in 2020, with the gap widening to -57,000 in 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, recording consecutive yearly natural declines of around 120,000.
According to the Statistics Korea’s future population projections, the population is expected to decrease from 51.67 million in 2022 to 51.31 million in 2030 and further down to 36.22 million, akin to 1977 levels, by 2072. The proportion of the population aged 65 and over is projected to increase to 47.7% by 2072. Under a pessimistic low scenario, the 2072 population could reduce to 30.17 million.
The National Assembly Budget Office’s recent long-term fiscal outlook emphasized the need for policy efforts to at least maintain a medium-level population structure, warning that continued low birth rates could increase national debt ratios.