In a by-election held in the Gorton-Denton area of Greater Manchester, representing the “Red Wall” of traditional Labour strongholds, the Labour Party suffered a defeat, finishing third behind the Green Party and the Reform Party. The Green Party, known for its left-leaning stance, secured a commanding victory with 41% of the votes, allowing their candidate, Hannah Spencer, to claim a seat in the House of Commons. The right-wing populist Reform Party came in second with 29% of the votes, pushing Labour to third place with 26%.
The Gorton-Denton constituency has been a Labour stronghold for over 100 years. UK media described this defeat as a “humiliating loss” for Prime Minister Keir Starmer, predicting increased pressure for his resignation. Although Labour successfully transitioned into power by unseating the Conservative Party in the 2024 general election after 14 years, its performance has been underwhelming since. This marks the second consecutive by-election where Labour lost a Commons seat to a minor party, following a similar outcome in Runcorn-Helsby last May.
Prime Minister Starmer personally campaigned for Labour in Gorton-Denton but faced a poor outcome. The upcoming local elections in May, to be held in parts of Wales, Scotland, and England, could further endanger his leadership if Labour performs poorly once again.
Matthew Goodwin, the Reform Party candidate, remarked that Labour’s predicament in one of its heartlands signifies potential vulnerability elsewhere. Labour’s support has been dwindling due to policy reversals on welfare and taxation and ongoing personnel controversies. Additionally, PM Starmer is entangled in controversy over his decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as the former UK ambassador to the U.S., despite being aware of Mandelson’s alleged connections to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
The Conservative Party, another major player in UK’s two-party system, only managed to secure a mere 2% of the vote in the Gorton-Denton by-election. Polling expert John Curtice noted that the future of UK politics is more uncertain than at any other point since World War II.