‘The government has initiated the preparation of a roadmap that sets annual targets for the distribution of zero-emission vehicles (electric and hydrogen cars). The plan is to establish a distribution strategy for zero-emission vehicles that aligns with the 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for greenhouse gas reduction.’
‘Recently, with Environment Minister Kim Seong-hwan’s comment on potentially stopping internal combustion engine vehicle production, there is an expectation that much-expanded distribution targets will be presented compared to previous plans.’
According to the Ministry of Environment on the 29th, a roadmap outlining plans for annual electric vehicle distribution by 2035 is currently under discussion in the transportation sector. Electrification targets will be proposed for passenger cars, buses, freight, and special vehicles. The detailed plan is expected to be announced by the end of the year after collecting opinions from stakeholders, including industry representatives, and coordinating with relevant ministries.
Due to low distribution rates amid slumping electric vehicle demand and the cessation of subsidies, these measures are being prepared. As of the end of last year, the registration numbers for electric and hydrogen vehicles in the country were only 68,4244 and 37,930, respectively, making up just 2.7% of the total 26,297,919 vehicle registrations.
The government initially aimed to distribute 4.5 million electric and hydrogen vehicles and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40% from 2018 levels by 2030, but has achieved only 16% of this target so far. There is strong emphasis on the urgent need for transportation electrification to achieve carbon neutrality.
With a new government in place, the goals for transportation electrification are expected to be revised upwards as part of strengthened environmental policies.
This is being considered alongside carbon reduction targets in the transportation sector in the context of the 2035 NDC development. The government is currently reviewing four scenarios for greenhouse gas reduction targets by 2035 compared to 2018: 48%, 53%, 61%, and 65%, with specific reduction targets varying by scenario.
At a public forum on the 24th, the Ministry of Environment suggested a greenhouse gas reduction target of 55.2-67% for the transportation sector by 2035. To achieve this, the proportion of zero-emission vehicles would need to reach 30-35%, which would correspond to 7.89-9.2 million vehicles based on the total number of cars registered in Korea as of the end of last year.
However, given the current distribution rate of electric and hydrogen vehicles, achieving this target is seen as challenging. To meet a target of 9.2 million by 2035, 850,000 electric and hydrogen cars would need to be sold annually over the next ten years, equal to the current cumulative sales of these vehicles each year.
Due to this, some opinions suggest that the sale of all internal combustion engine cars should stop from 2035. Minister Kim stated at an NDC public forum on the 19th: “We need to electrify all moving things and reduce (transport sector greenhouse gas emissions) at more than double the current pace,” adding “decisions to effectively end internal combustion vehicle production by 2035 or 2040 should be made without delay.”
In order to achieve the NDC targets through increased zero-emission vehicle distribution, the potential termination of internal combustion vehicle sales is a measure that might be considered. Discussions on stopping internal combustion vehicle sales are also actively taking place internationally and within the industry. The European Union (EU), for example, aims to ban internal combustion vehicle sales starting in 2035 and is discussing detailed implementation plans. Hyundai announced at the 2021 Frankfurt Motor Show that it would stop selling internal combustion vehicles in major markets from 2040.
An official from the Ministry of Environment, in response to the possibility of stopping internal combustion vehicle production, stated, “Considering practical issues, stopping production is not being reviewed as a policy matter,” but they noted that the targets for electrification in the transportation sector would be presented as higher in alignment with the 2035 NDC.