Trump-Putin Meeting as ‘Turning Point for Ukraine War’
“No NATO Membership or Return of Crimea”
Trump Sets Boundaries Before Meeting… Putin Agrees to NATO-Level Security Assurance
US Stops Tariff Pressure on Russia, But May Use Sanctions if Talks Deadlock
On the 18th (local time), US President Donald Trump met with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House in Washington and will also meet with leaders of major European countries. At the meeting, discussions will include the peace agreement negotiated by Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, Alaska on the 15th, aimed at ending the Ukraine war.
The summit between the US and Ukraine, alongside the presence of leaders from major European countries such as the UK, France, Germany, and Italy in Washington, is seen as a turning point for the Ukraine war, which has been ongoing for three and a half years since it began in February 2022. This report examines major issues surrounding the Ukraine war and peace negotiations.
1. Territory
Currently, Russia is reported to occupy about 20% of Ukraine’s territory. According to Reuters, Russia controls about 88% (approximately 46,570 km²) of the Donbas region (Luhansk and Donetsk) in eastern Ukraine and is demanding that the remaining 12% (about 6,630 km²) be ceded to them. During recent US-Russia talks, there were suggestions that if Ukraine were to cede the Donbas region, security could be guaranteed through European stationed forces.
However, the areas of the Donbas that Ukraine still controls represent strategic points that could allow them to advance towards the capital, Kyiv.
Russia has indicated it could return 440 km² in the northern Ukrainian regions of Sumy and Kharkiv, which it currently holds. This area is only a fraction (1/15) of what Russia is demanding from Ukraine. Additionally, Sumy is economically underdeveloped and of less strategic value compared to Donbas, rich in coal and other resources.
Russia has stated that it might freeze the current frontline in southern Ukraine’s Kherson and Zaporizhzhia if these conditions are met. Reportedly, President Trump has agreed to accept a significant portion of Putin’s territorial demands.
Both US and Russian leaders have agreed that the return of Crimea, forcibly annexed by Russia from Ukraine in 2014, is not feasible. Trump had drawn a “red line” on this issue before meeting President Zelensky, announcing on Truth Social on the 17th, “Crimea, taken during the Obama administration, cannot be returned.”
2. Security Assurance
Ukraine has been demanding NATO membership as a reliable security measure. However, the US and Russia are both opposed to this. Trump reiterated on the 17th via Truth Social that Ukraine joining NATO is not possible.
Instead, a plan is being discussed where major European countries would deploy peacekeeping forces to Ukraine, thereby providing security nearly equivalent to NATO standards. Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy, stated in a CNN interview that Putin has agreed to the US and European allies providing Ukraine with protection similar to NATO’s Article 5 (collective security).
The key issue is the level of security assurance the US will provide. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio mentioned in a Fox News interview that “any US promise regarding security assurances would be a significant step,” implying that the US might not leave the security of Ukraine entirely to Europe but would also play a role.
Currently, the Trump administration is confining its support to routing US weapons through European countries to Ukraine without deploying US troops. French President Emmanuel Macron said, “Europeans should ask President Trump about the level of security assurance he will provide for Ukraine.”
3. Sanctions Against Russia
After the US-Russia summit, President Trump halted “tariff pressure” on Russia. Despite initially threatening a 100% secondary tariff on countries like China importing Russian oil, Trump stated after the meeting that raising tariffs on China was no longer necessary, effectively reversing his stance. This change is likely due to the potential for increased domestic inflation in the US from rising international oil prices if Russian sanctions are imposed and concerns that sanctions could negatively affect negotiations.
Secretary Rubio stated, “Russia is already subject to severe sanctions. I don’t believe new sanctions will force Russia to accept a ceasefire,” adding that imposing new sanctions could severely hinder their ability to negotiate with Russia. However, if peace negotiations stall, the Trump administration might reconsider economic sanctions against Russia to counter criticism of Trump’s pro-Russian policies.