**Who has sharp instincts?**
**[Reporter]**
The prediction made by Yoo Si-min, a writer with a tendency towards the opposition, regarding the presidential election vote percentages has become a hot topic. He forecasted that it would be “55% to 35% to 10%,” although he did not specify for whom.
As evidence, he cited last year’s survey by Gallup on the preference for former presidents. According to this survey, the most favored former president was Roh Moo-hyun with 35%, followed by Park Chung-hee and Kim Dae-jung in second and third place, respectively.
Yoo Si-min argues that a preference for former presidents is linked to the voters’ identity, and thus these numbers unavoidably correlate with the voting percentages in this presidential election. Let’s hear from him directly.
**[Yoo Si-min/Writer]**: “If asked, ‘Among Roh Moo-hyun, Moon Jae-in, or Kim Dae-jung, who do you like the most?’ the combined answer totals 55%. I believe that in this presidential election, the minimum vote percentage will be 55%.”
**[Anchor]**
Yoo Si-min often gives election forecasts, and this time it’s very intriguing whether he will be accurate. However, he mentioned 55%, a minimum of 55%, but this figure has never been seen before in previous presidential elections, right?
**[Reporter]**
Yes, that’s correct. Achieving a vote percentage of 55% would be an unprecedented victory, an overwhelming triumph that neither the ruling nor the opposition parties, conservative or progressive, have accomplished since democratization in 1987.
Only once has a candidate achieved more than 50% of the votes: it was former president Park Geun-hye in 2012. As elections draw closer, both ruling and opposition parties tend to rally strongly, making it historically challenging for one side to achieve a majority of over 50% of the votes.
In fact, the Democratic Party today (on the 15th) voiced caution against Yoo Si-min’s optimistic projections. Kim Min-seok, co-chair of the Democratic Party Election Committee known for election strategy, stated that he could not agree with this prediction of an overwhelming victory, anticipating instead a close contest. Let’s listen to him.
**[Kim Min-seok/Co-chair of the Democratic Party Election Committee]**: “The gap in a two-person or three-person race will gradually narrow… We need to prepare and regroup with tension and resolve for fierce engagement in the democratic camp.”