**Stage 1 Hostage and Prisoner Exchange Completed… Expert: “Netanyahu Likely to Resume War Rather Than Proceed to Stage 2″**
Hamas, the Palestinian militant faction, and Israel completed the first stage of a hostage and prisoner exchange in Gaza on the 27th (local time). However, with only two days remaining before the end of Stage 1, it remains unclear whether Stage 2 ceasefire negotiations will even begin. While there is speculation about extending Stage 1, concerns are growing that Israel might choose to resume war after a short extension.
According to the Israeli media outlet, “Times of Israel,” on the 27th, Hamas sent the bodies of four Israeli hostages back to Israel from Gaza. The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office confirmed that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) had received the bodies through the Red Cross. The returned hostages, including the oldest, Shlomo Mantzur (85), are believed to be men in their 40s to 80s at the time of their abduction and will have their identities confirmed through forensic investigations in Israel.
In response, Israel began releasing approximately 600 Palestinian prisoners. Reuters reported that when a bus carrying the released prisoners arrived in Ramallah, West Bank, it was met with cheering crowds. Al Jazeera broadcast reported that prisoners arriving in Khan Younis, southern Gaza, were in weakened condition and reunited with their families at a European hospital.
This exchange concluded the promised release of hostages and prisoners in Stage 1. Hamas released 33 Israeli hostages, including 8 bodies, and 5 Thai hostages, while Israel released about 1,900 Palestinian prisoners. In Gaza, 59 hostages remain, and according to the Palestinian prisoner rights group Addameer, Israel detains around 10,000 Palestinians, including over 3,000 administratively detained without charge or trial.
Though tension surged when Israel delayed releasing 600 prisoners in reaction to what they deemed Hamas’ “humiliating” hostage release event over the weekend, the successful exchange eased immediate threats. This time, Hamas transferred the hostages without a separate event.
However, with only two days before the Stage 1 ceasefire expires on March 1st, the commencement of the ill-started Stage 2 negotiations remains uncertain. On the 27th, Hamas stated that they were ready to begin Stage 2 negotiations, emphasizing that adhering to the ceasefire is the only way to release the remaining hostages, according to Reuters.
The Washington Post reported that Gaza analyst Ibrahim Madhoun, who is close to Hamas, believes that Hamas is reluctant to restart the war. He noted the dire situation in Gaza, adding, “Hamas’ priority is to protect Palestinians and ease their suffering.”
The report also noted that despite the ceasefire, Gaza residents face shortages in fuel, tents, and bulldozers while remaining discontented at not yet retrieving the buried bodies of family members.
Currently, extending the Stage 1 ceasefire seems more likely than starting Stage 2. The Wall Street Journal reported that mediators are currently pushing for an extension of Stage 1, delaying more difficult issues to be addressed in Stage 2 negotiations later on. The newspaper noted that although mediators focus on additional hostage and prisoner exchanges via the extension, an agreement is still pending, raising fears of resumed fighting.
Although extending Stage 1 doesn’t guarantee a transition to Stage 2, according to the Times of Israel, an Israeli official stated that the current ceasefire phase might be extended if Hamas continues releasing hostages according to the rules established in Stage 1. However, they also cited the possibility of returning to full-scale war after taking time until the 8th of next month.
The Washington Post mentioned that David Makovsky from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy commented, “The issue is how long an extension can last,” noting that, “For Prime Minister Netanyahu, it’s a mix of strategic belief and political calculation. I think he genuinely believes the only way to deal with Hamas is through force, a belief reinforced by the political calculation that Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who favors war resumption, might try to topple the government.” Makovsky observed that Netanyahu is likely to choose fighting over a Stage 2 ceasefire and renewed hostilities.
The New York Times, citing multiple defense officials, reported that the IDF is already extensively preparing for new intensive operations in Gaza. On the 23rd, the IDF announced bolstered operational readiness surrounding Gaza.
If Stage 1 ceasefire is extended, the following weekend could mark a pivotal moment, as it’s the deadline for Israel to withdraw troops from the Philadelphi Corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border according to the ceasefire agreement. Recalling Prime Minister Netanyahu’s past remarks against withdrawing from the corridor, the New York Times noted emerging predictions of potential Israeli ceasefire violations, expecting that if Israel breaches the ceasefire conditions, Hamas would retaliate with rockets, giving Israel a pretext to respond.
Stage 2 negotiations, if initiated, are expected to be fraught with difficulty. Stage 2 should involve the release of remaining surviving hostages, a prisoner swap, the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces, and plans for a permanent ceasefire. However, establishing a permanent ceasefire seems challenging given the lack of consensus on post-conflict governance in Gaza.
Both sides have shown signs of discord from the onset of Stage 2 negotiation conditions. According to the Times of Israel, an Israeli official said Israel would demand Hamas’ demilitarization and the transfer of civil governance to Gaza before advancing to Stage 2 talks. Hamas, however, is rebelling against this idea. The Washington Post reported that Hamas political committee member Suhail al-Hindi stated, “The weapons of resistance are not subject to negotiation or discussion. They are sacred and cannot be given up.”
The Financial Times noted that although Western and regional officials doubt Hamas would accept such conditions fearing war resumption, a diplomat experienced in negotiating with Palestinian armed groups stated, “Hamas has nothing to lose,” and accepting Israeli conditions would be “suicidal.”
As U.S. President Donald Trump raised controversy with his plan to relocate Gaza residents earlier this month, the U.S. stance is expected to be a major factor. The Financial Times cited a former U.S. official predicting the end of “the pretense of negotiations” soon leading to “the resumption of war,” emphasizing much depends on whether President Trump supports this movement or pressures Prime Minister Netanyahu to reach a Stage 2 agreement as he did during Stage 1.
Steve Wicoff, a White House Middle East envoy, told CNN on the 23rd, “We need to secure a Stage 1 ceasefire extension,” expressing hope for “finding time to start and finish Stage 2 and return more hostages.”